Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 4, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reid Detmers - Angels
  • Ben Lively - Guardians

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

In a highly-anticipated American League matchup, the Cleveland Guardians are set to face off against the Los Angeles Angels on May 4, 2024, at Progressive Field. The Guardians, currently the home team, are having a stellar season with a record of 20-12, while the Angels are struggling with a disappointing 12-20 record.

Taking the mound for the Guardians is right-handed pitcher Ben Lively, who has shown excellent form this year with an ERA of 2.30. Despite being ranked as the #256 best starting pitcher in MLB by our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Lively has been lucky according to his 3.02 xFIP. He is projected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings today, allowing 2.7 earned runs and striking out 4.4 batters. However, Lively's weakness lies in giving up hits and walks, with an average projection of 5.4 hits and 1.5 walks allowed per game.

The Angels will counter with left-handed pitcher Reid Detmers, who has performed impressively with a 3-2 record and a 3.12 ERA. Our projections consider Detmers an average pitcher, and he is expected to pitch an average of 5.2 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out 4.5 batters. Similarly to Lively, Detmers struggles with hits and walks, projected to allow 5.4 hits and 1.9 walks on average.

When analyzing the teams' offensive capabilities, the Guardians rank as the 12th best team in MLB, displaying an average level of talent. They hold the 14th spot in team batting average, but have struggled with home runs, ranking last in that category. However, their strong suit lies in stolen bases, as they rank 7th in the league. On the other hand, the Angels rank as the 15th best team in MLB, also exhibiting an average level of talent. They excel in team batting average, ranking 12th, and show great power with the 3rd most home runs in the league. However, they struggle in stolen bases, ranking 27th.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Guardians rank as the 4th best in MLB, showcasing their ability to protect leads and close out games. Conversely, the Angels have struggled with their bullpen, ranking 29th, which could be a significant factor in this matchup.

Looking at recent performances, the Guardians' best hitter over the last 7 games has been Steven Kwan, who has been a consistent force at the plate. Meanwhile, the Angels' standout performer during the same period has been Luis Rengifo, who has displayed an impressive batting average and OPS.

With a projected win probability of 57%, the Guardians enter the game as the favorites, while the Angels, with an implied win probability of 43%, are considered the underdogs. The Guardians have a high implied team total of 4.31 runs, while the Angels have a lower implied team total of 3.69 runs.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Out of all starting pitchers, Reid Detmers's fastball spin rate of 2149 rpm grades out in the 15th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Jo Adell has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His .340 mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .201.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Ben Lively will concede an average of 1.4 singles in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Tyler Freeman has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (52% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 62 games at home (+13.85 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games (+8.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.95 Units / 57% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 4.35 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.71

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