San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 4, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael King - Padres
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

On May 4, 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks will face off against the San Diego Padres at Chase Field. This National League West matchup features the Diamondbacks as the home team. The Diamondbacks have had a tough season so far, with a record of 14-18, while the Padres have a slightly below-average season with a record of 16-18.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start right-handed pitcher Brandon Pfaadt, who has a 1-1 record this season with an ERA of 4.63. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Pfaadt is an average starting pitcher in MLB. He has started six games this year and is expected to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs.

The Padres will counter with right-handed pitcher Michael King, who has a 2-3 record this season with an ERA of 5.00. According to our Power Rankings, King is above average among starting pitchers in MLB. He has also started six games this year and is projected to pitch around 5.0 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs.

The Diamondbacks offense ranks as the 9th best in MLB this season, showing good overall talent. They have an average team batting average and an average ranking in team home runs. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd in MLB. On the other hand, the Padres offense is ranked 13th in MLB, with an average batting average and home run ranking, but they are also strong in stolen bases, ranking 7th in the league.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Padres have the 8th best bullpen in MLB, according to our Power Rankings, while the Diamondbacks rank 24th. This could give the Padres an advantage late in the game.

Considering the current odds, the Diamondbacks are favored to win with a moneyline set at -130, implying a 54% win probability. The Padres have a moneyline of +110, indicating a 46% win probability. This suggests that the game is expected to be close.

Overall, this matchup presents an interesting clash between the struggling Diamondbacks and the slightly below-average Padres. The Diamondbacks' offense and starting pitcher Pfaadt may have an advantage against the Padres' pitching staff, but the Padres' bullpen strength could play a crucial role in the outcome of the game. With both teams having their strengths and weaknesses, it is bound to be an exciting contest.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Michael King's 91.6-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.9-mph fall off from last season's 93.5-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Manny Machado's footspeed has declined this season. His 26.25 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.58 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Today, Fernando Tatis Jr. is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.5% rate (95th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #29 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.402) may lead us to conclude that Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has had bad variance on his side this year with his .304 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Ranking 3rd-lowest in the majors since the start of last season, Arizona Diamondbacks batters as a unit have compiled a 10.7° launch angle (a reliable metric to study the ability to lift the ball for power).

• A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 133 games (+11.90 Units / 8% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 66 of their last 127 games (+8.55 Units / 6% ROI)
• Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+12.05 Units / 83% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.77 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 4.79

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