Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers

May 4, 2024

Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs
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Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 4, 2024
  • Venue: Wrigley Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Tobias Myers - Brewers
    • Jameson Taillon - Cubs

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Brewers 105, Cubs -125
Runline: Brewers 1.5 -190, Cubs -1.5 165
Over/Under Total: 8 -110

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Milwaukee Brewers - 47% Milwaukee Brewers - 47.02%
Chicago Cubs - 53% Chicago Cubs - 52.98%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

The Chicago Cubs will host the Milwaukee Brewers in an exciting National League Central matchup at Wrigley Field on May 4, 2024. Both teams are having great seasons, with the Cubs boasting a 19-14 record and the Brewers sitting at 20-11. It's the second game in the series between these two teams, with the Cubs hoping to bounce back from their previous loss.

The Cubs are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jameson Taillon, who has been performing exceptionally well this season. With a 2-0 win/loss record and an impressive 1.50 ERA, Taillon has been a key contributor to the Cubs' success. However, his 4.62 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate so far and could face challenges in future performances.

On the other side, the Brewers are expected to start right-handed pitcher Tobias Myers. Myers has had an average season, with a 0-1 win/loss record and a 4.50 ERA. However, his 3.49 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could potentially improve in upcoming games.

In terms of offense, the Cubs rank 14th in MLB this season, with a solid team batting average and a decent number of home runs. Meanwhile, the Brewers have one of the best offenses in the league, ranking 3rd overall. However, their team batting average is lower than average, suggesting that their success comes from other aspects of their offense.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Cubs rank 20th in MLB, while the Brewers rank 15th. This indicates that both teams have an average bullpen that could play a crucial role in the outcome of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Cubs are favored to win with a moneyline set at -130, giving them a 54% implied win probability. The Brewers, with a moneyline of +110, have a 46% implied win probability. However, it's important to note that the betting markets expect a close game.

Overall, the Cubs and Brewers are evenly matched, with each team having its strengths and weaknesses. The Cubs will rely on Taillon's solid performance, while the Brewers will look to Myers to bounce back from his recent struggles. It will be an exciting game to watch, and baseball fans can expect a competitive showdown between these two division rivals.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Tobias Myers has averaged 81.6 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 16th percentile.

  • Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Since the start of last season, Brice Turang's 2.9% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 7th percentile among his peers.

  • Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Rhys Hoskins pulls many of his flyballs (37% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jameson Taillon has relied on his secondary pitches 7.1% more often this season (62.5%) than he did last season (55.4%).

  • A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Matt Mervis's footspeed has fallen off this year. His 24.77 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 23.11 ft/sec now.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Chicago Cubs have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael Busch, Christopher Morel, Pete Crow-Armstrong).

  • Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+7.10 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 90 games (+9.25 Units / 8% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+8.65 Units / 71% ROI)

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Final Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4.31 vs Chicago Cubs 4.36

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