Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves Prediction For 9/29/2024

• Date: September 29, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Alec Marsh - Royals
  • Charlie Morton - Braves

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves and Kansas City Royals prepare to wrap up their interleague series at Truist Park on September 29, 2024, both teams find themselves in competitive positions for postseason berths. The Braves, with an 88-71 record, are enjoying a solid season, while the Royals, at 85-76, are having an above-average campaign. Atlanta has already asserted its dominance in this series, clinching a tight 2-1 victory against Kansas City just a day prior.

On the mound, the Braves will turn to Charlie Morton, a right-hander with a 4.08 ERA over 29 starts. Despite being ranked as the 121st best starting pitcher in the league, Morton has shown an above-average ERA, indicating he is capable of delivering on crucial occasions. However, Morton's peripheral stats, such as a high projected hits and walks allowed, suggest he needs to be cautious against Kansas City's lineup, which ranks 9th in batting average.

The Royals will counter with Alec Marsh, also a righty, who enters with a 4.65 ERA. His peripheral indicator, a 4.05 SIERA, suggests he has been unlucky and may be due for improvement. Marsh's challenge will be containing a Braves offense that ranks 12th overall but stands out as 4th in home runs, thanks to power-hitters like Marcell Ozuna.

The Braves are favored to take the series finale, with the betting market giving them a 68% implied win probability. However, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, offers a different view, projecting Atlanta with a 58% chance and suggesting potential value in backing the Royals, who have a 10% greater win probability than the betting odds imply. With both bullpens ranked in the top half, this game might come down to which starter can better navigate through the opposing lineup's strengths.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Marsh to throw 79 pitches in this matchup (9th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Bobby Witt Jr. has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.8-mph average to last season's 90.7-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Kansas City Royals bats jointly rank among the best in the league this year (4th-) in regard to their 89.5-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Charlie Morton must realize this, because he has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 61.1% of the time, placing in the 83rd percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Despite posting a .399 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Marcell Ozuna has had positive variance on his side given the .051 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .348.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Michael Harris II hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 94 of their last 152 games (+35.55 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games (+11.95 Units / 36% ROI)
• Adam Frazier has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 away games (+13.00 Units / 325% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.5 vs Atlanta Braves 5.05

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