Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 4, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Casey Mize - Tigers
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

On May 4, 2024, the New York Yankees will face off against the Detroit Tigers at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees, with a season record of 21-13, are having a great season and are looking to continue their success at home. The Tigers, with a record of 18-14, are also having a good season and will be aiming to secure a win on the road.

The Yankees will be the home team for this American League matchup. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Clarke Schmidt, who has been performing above average according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Schmidt has started six games this year, boasting a 2-1 win/loss record and an impressive 3.19 ERA.

On the other side, the Tigers will send right-handed pitcher Casey Mize to the mound. Mize, while having a good ERA of 3.08, is considered a below-average pitcher according to our Power Rankings. He has started five games this season, with a 1-0 record.

This game marks the second in the series between the Yankees and Tigers. The Yankees fought back to win the first one in dramatic fashion at home and will look for a second straight win over the Tigers here.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Yankees have the 8th best offense in MLB, showcasing their underlying talent. However, their team batting average ranks 29th in the league. The Tigers, on the other hand, have the 23rd best offense, with a low team batting average ranking of 27th.

The Yankees' best hitter this season has been undisclosed. In their last seven games, Anthony Rizzo has been their standout performer, recording 9 hits, 6 runs, 6 RBIs, and 2 home runs, with a batting average of .360 and an impressive OPS of 1.109. The Tigers' best hitter over the last seven games has been Riley Greene, who has recorded 10 hits, 4 runs, 4 RBIs, and 2 home runs, with a batting average of .435 and an OPS of 1.264.

According to the current odds, the Yankees are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -160 and an implied win probability of 59%. The Tigers, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +135 and an implied win probability of 41%. The Yankees have a high implied team total of 4.40 runs, while the Tigers have a low implied team total of 3.60 runs.

With both teams having solid starting pitchers on the mound and the Yankees' offensive prowess, this game has the potential to be an exciting matchup. The Tigers will need to rely on their pitching and find a way to overcome the Yankees' strong offense if they want to secure a victory on the road.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Spencer Torkelson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (93% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Detroit Tigers batters as a group grade out 24th- in baseball for power since the start of last season when using their 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

The New York Yankees outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Alex Verdugo's quickness has dropped off this year. His 27.26 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.65 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Juan Soto hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 5th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+9.70 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 48 away games (+16.70 Units / 31% ROI)
• Anthony Rizzo has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 11 games (+13.30 Units / 121% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 3.55 vs New York Yankees 4.59

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