Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 4, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brennan Bernardino - Red Sox
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins will face off against the Boston Red Sox in an American League matchup scheduled to be played on May 4, 2024, at Target Field. The Twins, who hold a home advantage, are having a great season with a record of 18-13. On the other hand, the Red Sox have an above-average season with a record of 18-15.

The Twins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Pablo Lopez, who is considered one of the best starting pitchers in MLB, ranking 14th out of approximately 350 pitchers according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In his six starts this year, Lopez has a win/loss record of 2-2 with an ERA of 4.83. However, his 3.04 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is expected to perform better going forward.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, are projected to start left-handed pitcher Brennan Bernardino. Bernardino has made 10 appearances out of the bullpen this season and has an impressive ERA of 0.73. However, his 4.41 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse in the future.

This game is the second in a series between the Twins and Red Sox. In their last game, the Twins emerged victorious with a score of 5-2. The Twins had a closing Moneyline price of -120, indicating a 52% implied win probability. The Red Sox, on the other hand, had a closing Moneyline price of +100, with a 48% implied win probability.

The Twins have been performing well offensively this season, ranking 10th best in MLB. Their best hitter, Ryan Jeffers, has been instrumental, recording 16 runs, 21 RBIs, and 5 home runs with a batting average of .298 and an OPS of .941.

On the other hand, the Red Sox boast the 5th best offense in MLB. Jarren Duran has been their standout hitter, contributing 20 runs and 9 stolen bases with a batting average of .261.

According to the current odds, the Twins are the favorites with a moneyline of -175, implying a 61% chance of winning. The Red Sox, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +150, suggesting a 39% chance of winning.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

With 9 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Brennan Bernardino will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

This season, there has been a decline in Jarren Duran's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.5 ft/sec last year to 28.68 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Garrett Cooper, Connor Wong, Tyler O'Neill).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

In his previous outing, Pablo Lopez was rolling and posted 8 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Ryan Jeffers has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .282 figure is a fair amount higher than his .240 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Minnesota Twins bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 82 games (+12.65 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.80 Units / 55% ROI)
• Tyler O'Neill has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 away games (+5.90 Units / 98% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 3.58 vs Minnesota Twins 4.08

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