Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction & Picks 7/8/2024

Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies

Jul 8, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Details

  • Date: July 8, 2024
  • Venue: Great American Ball Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Ryan Feltner - Rockies
    • Andrew Abbott - Reds

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Rockies 150, Reds -175
Runline: Rockies 1.5 -135, Reds -1.5 115
Over/Under Total: 9.5 100

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Colorado Rockies - 39% Colorado Rockies - 44.21%
Cincinnati Reds - 61% Cincinnati Reds - 55.79%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies are set to face off on July 8, 2024, at Great American Ball Park in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Reds holding a 42-48 record and the Rockies at an even worse 32-58. Despite their challenges, the Reds are favored in this contest, carrying an implied win probability of 63%.

Andrew Abbott will take the mound for Cincinnati. The left-hander has been solid this season, posting an 8-6 record with an impressive 3.28 ERA. However, his 4.92 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate, and regression could be on the horizon. Abbott projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, while striking out 5.9 batters. Facing a high-strikeout Rockies offense—4th most strikeouts in MLB—could play to Abbott's advantage, even though he sports a low 18.6 K%.

On the other side, Ryan Feltner will start for Colorado. The right-hander has had a tough season with a 1-7 record and a 5.60 ERA. Interestingly, his xFIP of 3.99 suggests he's been unlucky and may perform better going forward. Feltner is projected to pitch 4.9 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, and striking out 5.0 batters.

Offensively, the Reds rank 23rd in MLB, with significant struggles in batting average (27th) and home runs (21st). However, they excel in stolen bases, leading MLB in that category. Spencer Steer has been their standout hitter over the last week, boasting a 1.133 OPS with 3 home runs and 6 RBIs in his last 6 games.

The Rockies' offense is more balanced, ranking 16th overall and 13th in batting average. They do struggle with power, ranking 23rd in home runs. Brenton Doyle has been on fire recently, hitting .524 with 4 home runs and a staggering 1.886 OPS in his last 6 games.

Both bullpens are among the worst in MLB, with the Reds ranked 24th and the Rockies 22nd in advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could lead to a high-scoring affair, as indicated by the game total of 9.5 runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Feltner to throw 85 pitches in today's game (6th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

  • Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Ryan McMahon has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.8-mph average to last season's 90.8-mph figure.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Colorado Rockies bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The Colorado Rockies have 7 bats in the projected lineup that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andrew Abbott in this game.

  • Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Colorado's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Elly De La Cruz, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

  • This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Jeimer Candelario pulls many of his flyballs (38.1% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 43 games at home (+13.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 68 games (+10.25 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 47 games (+18.60 Units / 35% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 4.73 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.05

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+142
12% COL
-167
88% CIN

Total Pick Consensus

9.0/-112
25% UN
9.0/-108
75% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-142
3% COL
-1.5/+120
97% CIN

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
COL
Team Stats
CIN
5.51
ERA
4.79
.277
Batting Avg Against
.256
1.51
WHIP
1.41
.311
BABIP
.302
9.3%
BB%
9.5%
18.0%
K%
21.8%
67.7%
LOB%
72.5%
.248
Batting Avg
.250
.399
SLG
.415
.707
OPS
.743
.307
OBP
.327
COL
Team Records
CIN
22-28
Home
25-28
14-36
Road
22-25
24-46
vRHP
34-34
12-18
vLHP
13-19
25-38
vs>.500
24-38
11-26
vs<.500
23-15
4-6
Last10
5-5
9-11
Last20
10-10
11-19
Last30
13-17
R. Feltner
A. Abbott
35.1
Innings
76.1
8
GS
13
2-3
W-L
7-3
5.86
ERA
2.95
8.41
K/9
9.79
6.37
BB/9
3.18
0.51
HR/9
1.18
64.8%
LOB%
84.5%
5.7%
HR/FB%
9.5%
4.34
FIP
3.86
5.23
xFIP
4.41
.266
AVG
.207
20.0%
K%
27.0%
15.2%
BB%
8.8%
5.56
SIERA
4.18

R. Feltner

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/27 PHI
Suarez N/A
L3-7 N/A
5
7
4
4
7
2
54-84
9/12 PHI
Nola N/A
W5-4 N/A
3.2
4
2
2
6
3
44-81
9/5 ATL
Morton N/A
L2-9 N/A
2.2
5
6
6
0
2
35-61

A. Abbott

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
COL CIN
COL CIN
Consensus
+164
-188
+142
-167
+164
-198
+142
-170
+152
-180
+144
-172
+163
-195
+143
-167
+162
-195
+143
-170
+155
-190
+140
-165
Open
Current
Book
COL CIN
COL CIN
Consensus
+1.5 (-146)
-1.5 (+109)
+1.5 (-146)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+108)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+128)
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+105)
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+125)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
9.0 (-125)
9.0 (+105)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-125)
9.0 (+105)
9.0 (-108)
9.0 (-112)
9.5 (+100)
9.5 (-122)
9.5 (+102)
9.5 (-124)
9.5 (+102)
9.5 (-122)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-109)
9.0 (-125)
9.0 (+105)
9.0 (-110)
9.0 (-110)
9.5 (+100)
9.5 (-120)
9.0 (-115)
9.0 (-105)