Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers Best Bet – 7/8/2024

Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians

Jul 8, 2024

Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Details

  • Date: July 8, 2024
  • Venue: Comerica Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Gavin Williams - Guardians
    • Keider Montero - Tigers

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Guardians -145, Tigers 120
Runline: Guardians -1.5 115, Tigers 1.5 -135
Over/Under Total: 8.5 -110

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Cleveland Guardians - 57% Cleveland Guardians - 53.48%
Detroit Tigers - 43% Detroit Tigers - 46.52%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers are set to host the Cleveland Guardians on July 8, 2024, at Comerica Park in a matchup that pits two American League Central rivals against each other. The Tigers, with a 42-48 record, are having a below-average season, while the Guardians boast an impressive 56-32 record and are enjoying a great season. This game marks the first in the series between these two teams.

The Tigers are projected to start Keider Montero, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled this season. Montero's 6.60 ERA is among the worst in MLB, ranking him 279th out of approximately 350 starting pitchers according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, his 4.20 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could improve moving forward. Montero has a 1-2 record in three starts this year and is projected to pitch 4.9 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, 5.2 hits, and 1.5 walks on average today.

On the other side, the Guardians will counter with Gavin Williams, also a right-handed pitcher. Williams has only started one game this season, sporting an 11.25 ERA, which indicates significant struggles. His 6.56 xFIP suggests he has been very unlucky and could perform better in future outings. Williams is projected to pitch 5.0 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, 4.8 hits, and 1.6 walks on average today. He faces a Tigers offense that ranks 27th in MLB, indicating a potential advantage for him despite his control issues.

Offensively, the Tigers have struggled mightily, ranking 27th in overall offense, 25th in batting average, 21st in home runs, and 28th in stolen bases. In contrast, the Guardians have a more balanced attack, ranking 12th in overall offense, 12th in batting average, 10th in home runs, and 9th in stolen bases.

Colt Keith has been a bright spot for Detroit, hitting .375 with a 1.256 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Angel Martinez has been on fire for Cleveland, batting .444 with a 1.373 OPS in his last four games.

The Tigers' bullpen is ranked 15th, reflecting an average performance, while the Guardians' bullpen is ranked 3rd, indicating a significant strength. Given the Tigers' struggles and the Guardians' strong season, Cleveland enters this game as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -145 and an implied win probability of 57%.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Gavin Williams has relied on his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 55.5% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.

  • Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Brayan Rocchio has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.6-mph dropping to 80.6-mph over the last 14 days.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Cleveland Guardians have been the luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games

  • When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Among all starting pitchers, Keider Montero's fastball velocity of 95 mph ranks in the 87th percentile this year.

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Riley Greene is an extreme groundball batter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best on the slate).

  • This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit's 88.6-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in the game: #21 overall.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 73 games (+8.70 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.27 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 43 games (+9.80 Units / 18% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.74 vs Detroit Tigers 4.17

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-143
72% CLE
+122
28% DET

Total Pick Consensus

8.5/-108
8% UN
8.5/-112
92% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+114
70% CLE
+1.5/-135
30% DET

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
CLE
Team Stats
DET
3.76
ERA
4.46
.240
Batting Avg Against
.244
1.27
WHIP
1.27
.286
BABIP
.289
8.3%
BB%
7.6%
21.3%
K%
22.2%
74.3%
LOB%
68.5%
.250
Batting Avg
.234
.380
SLG
.374
.693
OPS
.673
.313
OBP
.299
CLE
Team Records
DET
30-11
Home
22-23
27-24
Road
23-26
37-29
vRHP
35-41
20-6
vLHP
10-8
24-15
vs>.500
23-31
33-20
vs<.500
22-18
5-5
Last10
7-3
11-9
Last20
11-9
17-13
Last30
14-16
G. Williams
K. Montero
54.2
Innings
N/A
10
GS
N/A
1-3
W-L
N/A
2.80
ERA
N/A
9.71
K/9
N/A
3.62
BB/9
N/A
0.82
HR/9
N/A
83.3%
LOB%
N/A
8.9%
HR/FB%
N/A
3.67
FIP
N/A
4.16
xFIP
N/A
.213
AVG
N/A
26.6%
K%
N/A
9.9%
BB%
N/A
4.15
SIERA
N/A

G. Williams

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

K. Montero

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
CLE DET
CLE DET
Consensus
-148
+130
-143
+122
-148
+124
-142
+120
-154
+130
-146
+124
-150
+128
-148
+125
-145
+122
-140
+118
-150
+125
-145
+120
Open
Current
Book
CLE DET
CLE DET
Consensus
-1.5 (+111)
+1.5 (-132)
-1.5 (+113)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+112)
+1.5 (-134)
-1.5 (+112)
+1.5 (-134)
-1.5 (+112)
+1.5 (-139)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-139)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-135)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-112)
8.5 (-109)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-112)
8.5 (-108)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-112)
8.5 (-108)
8.5 (-112)
8.5 (-108)
8.5 (-114)
8.5 (-107)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)