Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 17, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Frankie Montas - Reds
  • James Paxton - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

On May 17, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will face off against the Cincinnati Reds at Dodger Stadium. As the home team, the Dodgers will look to continue their impressive season with a matchup against the struggling Reds.

The Dodgers hold a stellar record of 29-16 this season, making them one of the top performers in the National League. Led by their powerful offense, which ranks as the best in MLB, the Dodgers have been a force to be reckoned with. Their lineup boasts a strong batting average, ranking 12th in the league, and they have hit the second-most home runs. However, their stolen bases rank low at 20th.

The Reds, on the other hand, have struggled this season with a record of 18-25. Their offense ranks as one of the weakest in MLB, sitting at 25th overall. While their batting average and home run ranking are average, they excel in stolen bases, ranking first in the league.

Taking the mound for the Dodgers is left-handed pitcher James Paxton. Despite his low ranking in THE BAT X projection system, he has had an exceptional season with a 5-0 win/loss record and an impressive 2.58 ERA. However, his xFIP suggests that he may regress in future performances.

Opposing Paxton is right-handed pitcher Frankie Montas of the Reds, who is ranked as an above-average starter according to THE BAT X. Montas has a 2-3 record this season with a 4.20 ERA.

With the Dodgers' dominant offense and Paxton's strong performance this year, they have a clear advantage in this matchup. However, Montas will look to capitalize on his strengths against a Dodgers lineup that strikes out frequently.

The current odds heavily favor the Dodgers, with a moneyline of -210 and an implied win probability of 65%. The Reds, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +180 and an implied win probability of 35%. Based on these odds, the Dodgers have a high implied team total of 4.99 runs, while the Reds have a lower implied team total of 3.51 runs.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Over his previous 3 GS, Frankie Montas has seen a significant increase in his fastball velocity: from 94 mph over the whole season to 95.1 mph in recent games.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Will Benson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (65% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Cincinnati Reds have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Stuart Fairchild, Will Benson, Luke Maile).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

James Paxton projects to average 2.1 walks today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

This season, there has been a decline in Freddie Freeman's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.69 ft/sec last year to 26.14 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen profiles as the 9th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.15 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.44 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.5

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