Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 17, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated interleague matchup, the St. Louis Cardinals are set to host the Boston Red Sox at Busch Stadium on May 17, 2024. The Cardinals, currently having a terrible season with a record of 18-25, will strive to turn their fortunes around as the home team. Meanwhile, the Red Sox, having an average season with a record of 22-22, will look to continue their steady performance as the away team.

Taking the mound for the Cardinals is right-handed pitcher Kyle Gibson. While Gibson may rank lower in advanced-stat Power Rankings at #186 out of approximately 350 pitchers, his season record of 2-2 and ERA of 3.67 indicate a solid performance. However, his 4.23 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could potentially face challenges going forward.

Opposing Gibson is right-handed pitcher Brayan Bello of the Red Sox. Bello, ranked at #73 in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, boasts an impressive season record of 4-1 and an ERA of 3.13. However, his peripheral indicators, including a higher SIERA, xERA, and FIP than his ERA, suggest that he may have been fortunate and could face regression in future performances.

Both teams possess notable offensive capabilities. The Cardinals rank #27 in MLB in terms of overall offensive performance, but they excel in team batting average (#7) and team home runs (#5). On the other hand, the Red Sox rank #12 overall, with a strong team batting average (#3) but a more average ranking in team home runs (#18) and stolen bases (#16).

In terms of bullpen strength, the Cardinals hold the #2 spot in the advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Red Sox rank #23. This suggests an advantage for the Cardinals in terms of reliever performance and late-game strategy.

Considering the projected statistics for the starting pitchers, Gibson is expected to pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs, striking out 4.6 batters, and conceding 6.0 hits and 1.5 walks. Bello, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 5.0 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs, striking out 3.8 batters, and giving up 5.0 hits and 1.6 walks.

With an average Game Total of 8.0 runs, betting markets anticipate a close game. The Cardinals hold a slight edge with a current moneyline of -105 and an implied win probability of 49%. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have a moneyline of -115 and an implied win probability of 51%.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Brayan Bello has gone to his secondary pitches 16.8% more often this year (59.9%) than he did last season (43.1%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

This year, there has been a decline in Jarren Duran's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.5 ft/sec last year to 29.03 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Boston Red Sox have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Garrett Cooper, Connor Wong, Wilyer Abreu, Tyler O'Neill).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Kyle Gibson's 90.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1-mph drop off from last season's 91.4-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme flyball hitters like Nolan Arenado tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+9.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+9.30 Units / 33% ROI)
• Masyn Winn has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+7.65 Units / 32% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.29 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.22

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