Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Prediction, Odds & Picks – 7/25/2024

Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: July 25, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jonathan Cannon - White Sox
  • Max Scherzer - Rangers

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

The Texas Rangers host the Chicago White Sox on July 25, 2024, in what looks to be a lopsided American League matchup at Globe Life Field. The Rangers (50-52) are having an average season, while the White Sox (27-77) are enduring a dreadful campaign. This game marks the fourth in the series between these teams, with the Rangers favored to continue their dominance.

Max Scherzer, the projected starter for the Rangers, boasts a respectable 3.99 ERA over six starts this season. Though his 1-3 win/loss record is underwhelming, his 3.45 xERA suggests he's been unlucky and may perform better moving forward. As a high-flyball pitcher, Scherzer has an advantage against a White Sox offense that ranks 28th in home runs this season. His low walk rate (5.0 BB%) also bodes well against a Chicago lineup that is 29th in walks.

On the flip side, Jonathan Cannon starts for the White Sox with a 4.58 ERA over nine starts. His 4.07 xFIP indicates he, too, has been a bit unlucky, but his 1-4 win/loss record and poor strikeout rate (3.5 K/9) highlight his struggles. The White Sox offense, ranked 30th, offers little support, making Cannon's task even more daunting.

Offensively, the Rangers rank 23rd overall but have shown flashes of potential, especially with Nate Lowe leading the charge recently. Over the last seven games, Lowe has a .316 batting average and a 1.090 OPS, including two home runs and five RBIs. Contrast this with the White Sox's Tommy Pham, who has a .261 average and one home run over the same span.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Rangers have a massive 71% projected win probability, making them a strong bet against the struggling White Sox. With a high implied team total of 4.88 runs, expect the Rangers to capitalize on their favorable matchup.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Jonathan Cannon’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2131 rpm) has been considerably better than than his seasonal rate (2078 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Andrew Benintendi has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Texas Rangers has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

In today's game, Tommy Pham is at a disadvantage facing the league's 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.3% rate (95th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Max Scherzer is an extreme flyball pitcher (42% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #6 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (19.4) may lead us to conclude that Wyatt Langford has had bad variance on his side this year with his 9.5 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Texas Rangers projected offense profiles as the 4th-best of all teams today in terms of overall hitting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 44 games at home (+17.15 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+9.65 Units / 24% ROI)
• Nate Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 23 games (+19.50 Units / 85% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.38 vs Texas Rangers 5.1

Get daily MLB picks here.