Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 4, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - White Sox
  • Lance Lynn - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On May 4, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Chicago White Sox at Busch Stadium for an Interleague matchup. The Cardinals have had a below-average season so far, with a record of 15-17, while the White Sox have struggled, with a record of 6-26.

The Cardinals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Lance Lynn, who has been performing well this season. Lynn has started six games, with a win-loss record of 1-0 and an impressive ERA of 2.64. However, his 4.52 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far this season and could regress in future performances.

The White Sox will counter with right-handed pitcher Erick Fedde. Fedde has also started six games this year, with a perfect 2-0 record and an excellent ERA of 2.60. However, his 3.32 xFIP indicates that he may have benefited from some good fortune and could see a decline in performance going forward.

In terms of team rankings, the Cardinals have the 27th best offense in MLB this season. They excel in team batting average, ranking 7th, and team home runs, ranking 5th. However, they struggle in stolen bases, ranking 23rd. On the other hand, the White Sox have the 30th best offense in MLB, ranking poorly in team batting average (22nd), team home runs (21st), and stolen bases (22nd).

When it comes to the pitching staff, the Cardinals have the top-ranked bullpen in MLB, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In contrast, the White Sox have the 28th ranked bullpen. This could be a significant advantage for the Cardinals in the later innings of the game.

Based on the current odds, the Cardinals are the favorites with a moneyline of -180, giving them an implied win probability of 62%. The White Sox, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +155 and an implied win probability of 38%.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

The Chicago White Sox outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Lance Lynn has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 7.3 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Nolan Gorman has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (43.2% — 100th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 68 games (+3.55 Units / 5% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 69 of their last 123 games (+15.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Willson Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+6.40 Units / 29% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.49 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.55

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