Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 4, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • John Means - Orioles
  • Andrew Abbott - Reds

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

On May 4, 2024, the Cincinnati Reds will host the Baltimore Orioles at Great American Ball Park in an Interleague matchup. The Reds, with a 16-16 record, are having an average season so far, while the Orioles, with a 21-11 record, are having a great season. The Reds will send left-handed pitcher Andrew Abbott to the mound, while the Orioles will counter with left-handed pitcher John Means.

Abbott, currently ranked as the #116 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has started six games this season. He holds a 1-3 record with an impressive 3.27 ERA. However, his 4.75 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and is likely to perform worse going forward. On average, Abbott is projected to pitch 4.9 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, striking out 5.3 batters, and giving up 4.8 hits and 2.0 walks.

Means, an average pitcher according to our Power Rankings, is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, striking out 4.5 batters, and giving up 5.4 hits and 1.3 walks on average. Means' performance has been consistent with his solid season, and he will look to continue his success against the Reds.

The Reds offense ranks as the 21st best in MLB this season, underperforming expectations. However, they excel in the stolen bases department, ranking 1st in the league. On the other hand, the Orioles offense ranks as the 7th best in MLB, showcasing their overall talent. Both teams have average rankings in batting average and home runs.

Looking at the betting odds, the Reds have a +100 moneyline with a 48% implied win probability, while the Orioles have a -120 moneyline with a 52% implied win probability. This implies that the game is expected to be close, favoring the Orioles slightly.

Overall, with the Orioles having a stronger record, better offense, and a bullpen advantage, they enter the game as the favorites. However, with Abbott's solid performance this season, the Reds will look to give the Orioles a tough challenge at home.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

John Means's 2413-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 86th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

This season, there has been a decline in Jorge Mateo's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 30.08 ft/sec last year to 29.43 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

James McCann hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 11th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #1 HR venue in the majors in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Extreme flyball bats like Spencer Steer usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like John Means.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Cincinnati Reds have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Stuart Fairchild, Bubba Thompson).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 126 games (+15.25 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 57 away games (+20.00 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+8.65 Units / 76% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.07 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.64

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