Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds Prediction For 7/31/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Details

• Date: July 31, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Hendricks - Cubs
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs are set to face off on July 31, 2024, at Great American Ball Park in the third game of their series. Both teams are having below average seasons, with the Reds holding a 51-55 record and the Cubs slightly behind at 51-57. This National League Central matchup features two struggling offenses, but there are some intriguing elements for bettors to consider.

The Reds will send left-hander Nick Lodolo to the mound, while the Cubs counter with right-hander Kyle Hendricks. Lodolo has shown flashes of brilliance this season, although his overall performance has been inconsistent. Hendricks, a seasoned veteran, has also had his ups and downs.

Cincinnati's offense has struggled with consistency, ranking 27th in team batting average and 13th in home runs. However, they lead MLB in stolen bases, showcasing their speed on the basepaths. Elly De La Cruz has been a bright spot for the Reds, batting .375 with a .974 OPS over the last week, including six hits, one home run, and six stolen bases in four games.

On the other side, the Cubs' offense ranks 23rd in both batting average and home runs, but they are 8th in stolen bases. Seiya Suzuki has been their standout performer recently, hitting .318 with a 1.105 OPS over the last week, including seven hits and two home runs in six games.

Given the pitching matchup and offensive struggles, this game could be a low-scoring affair. Bettors should note that Cincinnati's speed on the bases might give them an edge, especially against a pitcher like Hendricks, who relies on control and finesse. The Reds' ability to manufacture runs through stolen bases could be a deciding factor in this contest.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Kyle Hendricks's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (52.3% vs. 44.7% last season) should work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Isaac Paredes has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.9-mph dropping to 82.7-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Nick Lodolo’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2306 rpm) has been considerably worse than than his seasonal rate (2367 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

T.J. Friedl has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 20.3 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is quite a bit higher than his 8.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 79 games (+9.85 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 57 of their last 101 games (+13.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+16.00 Units / 31% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 5.29 vs Cincinnati Reds 5.47

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