Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Prediction & Picks 8/31/2024

• Date: August 31, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to face the Boston Red Sox on August 31, 2024, both teams find themselves in an intriguing position. The Tigers are currently 68-68, while the Red Sox boast a 70-65 record, placing them slightly ahead in the standings. With playoff implications still in play, this matchup becomes crucial for both sides.

In their previous game, the Tigers struggled, but they are looking to bounce back against a Red Sox team that has been performing well lately. Tarik Skubal, projected to start for Detroit, is an elite left-handed pitcher ranked 2nd among all starters in MLB. With a 15-4 record and a stellar 2.58 ERA, Skubal presents a tough challenge for the Red Sox lineup, which has struck out the 4th most times in the league. His high strikeout rate (30.4 K%) could put him in a prime position to exploit the Red Sox’s weaknesses.

On the other side, Boston will counter with Nick Pivetta, who has had an average season at best, holding a 5-9 record and a 4.61 ERA. Although he ranks 78th among MLB starters, his xFIP of 3.48 indicates he may have faced some bad luck this season. Despite this, Pivetta's projections are not as favorable, expecting him to pitch only 4.6 innings while allowing 2.3 earned runs on average.

The projections favor the Tigers with a projected win probability of 58%, even as they face a Red Sox offense that ranks 4th in MLB overall. The Tigers’ offense has struggled this season, ranking 23rd, which could hinder their ability to capitalize on Skubal's elite outing. With a Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs and the Tigers as slight betting favorites, it will be fascinating to see how this pivotal matchup unfolds.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Nick Pivetta has relied on his slider 12.9% more often this season (30.3%) than he did last year (17.4%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

This season, Tyler O'Neill has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.9 mph compared to last year's 92.8 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Romy Gonzalez, Tyler O'Neill, Triston Casas).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Tarik Skubal's 96.2-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.2-mph jump from last year's 95-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Typically, batters like Spencer Torkelson who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Nick Pivetta.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Detroit's 88.5-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in baseball: #21 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 55 games (+15.25 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 43 away games (+14.05 Units / 27% ROI)
• Parker Meadows has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 22 games (+11.80 Units / 51% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 3.96 vs Detroit Tigers 4.39

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.