Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals Best Bet – 6/8/2024

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: June 8, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Charlie Morton - Braves
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals and the Atlanta Braves gear up for the third game of their series on June 8, 2024, both teams bring different narratives to the table. The Nationals, who have struggled this season with a 28-35 record, stunned the Braves with a 2-1 victory yesterday, despite being significant underdogs with a +175 moneyline. The Braves, sitting at 35-26, were favored heavily with a -210 moneyline but couldn't capitalize.

Today's game features a pitching matchup between MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals and Charlie Morton for the Braves. Gore has had a respectable season, boasting a 3.57 ERA and ranking as the 62nd-best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, he is coming off a rough outing, allowing six earned runs in just four innings on June 3. Morton, with a 3.88 ERA, performed admirably in his last start on June 2, pitching six shutout innings.

The Nationals' offense has been among the worst in MLB, ranking 28th in runs scored and home runs, although they lead the league in stolen bases. C.J. Abrams has been their standout hitter this season, but Jesse Winker has been on fire over the past week, hitting .458 with a .977 OPS.

On the flip side, the Braves have the 10th-best offense, with Marcell Ozuna leading the charge. Ozuna has been particularly hot recently, posting a 1.189 OPS over the last week. Despite their offensive prowess, the Braves have struggled in the small-ball department, ranking 27th in stolen bases.

One interesting discrepancy comes from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, which projects this game to be closer than the betting market suggests, giving both teams a 50% win probability. However, the Nationals appear to offer more value with a win probability that is 6% greater than their implied odds. Despite the Braves' stronger season and better offensive rankings, the Nationals' recent victory and Gore's potential make them a sneaky underdog for today's matchup.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Charlie Morton's high usage rate of his secondary pitches (62.5% this year) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Orlando Arcia has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 15.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably lower than his 36.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Adam Duvall pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.3% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 11th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore's fastball velocity has jumped 1.5 mph this season (95.9 mph) over where it was last season (94.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Jacob Young's 0% Barrel% (a reliable stat to assess power) grades out in the 0th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 4th-worst projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the Washington Nationals.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 48 games (+7.10 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 40 games (+18.95 Units / 43% ROI)
• Luis Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 games at home (+13.10 Units / 109% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.99 vs Washington Nationals 4.66

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