Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction & Odds – 6/8/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks

Jun 8, 2024

San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Details

  • Date: June 8, 2024
  • Venue: Petco Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs
    • Matt Waldron - Padres

Betting Odds

Moneyline: D-Backs 125, Padres -145
Runline: D-Backs 1.5 -175, Padres -1.5 150
Over/Under Total: 8 -110

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Arizona Diamondbacks - 43% Arizona Diamondbacks - 44.66%
San Diego Padres - 57% San Diego Padres - 55.34%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to clash at Petco Park on June 8, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of below-average seasons. The Padres sport a 32-34 record, while the Diamondbacks are at 30-33, setting the stage for a pivotal National League West matchup.

San Diego's projected starter, Matt Waldron, has shown flashes of brilliance this season with a 3.98 ERA across 12 starts. His underlying metrics, including a 3.39 xERA, suggest that he has been somewhat unlucky and could be in line for better results moving forward. Waldron is expected to pitch an average of 5.5 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 5.1 batters.

On the other side, Arizona's Ryne Nelson will take the mound with a less impressive 5.44 ERA over 10 starts. His 4.47 xFIP indicates that he, too, has been unfortunate this year. However, Nelson's low strikeout rate (14.9 K%) could be problematic against a Padres offense that ranks 4th in MLB for least strikeouts.

Offensively, the Padres hold several advantages. Ranked 9th in MLB, their offense boasts the best team batting average, a respectable 19th in home runs, and 8th in stolen bases. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been on fire over the last week, hitting .583 with a 1.407 OPS over six games. This offensive firepower could spell trouble for Nelson, who projects to allow 3.0 earned runs and 6.1 hits over 5.5 innings.

Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks' offense ranks 11th in MLB and is average in most categories, including batting average (11th) and home runs (19th). Ketel Marte has been their standout performer lately, hitting .429 with a 1.300 OPS over the last week, including two home runs and four RBIs.

Both bullpens tell a similar story, with San Diego's ranked 10th in advanced-stat Power Rankings compared to Arizona's 20th. This disparity could be a crucial factor late in the game.

The Padres enter as the betting favorite with a moneyline of -145, translating to an implied win probability of 57%. Given their offensive prowess and Waldron’s potential for better performance, San Diego seems poised to secure a critical victory in this series finale.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ryne Nelson has averaged 14.4 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 17th percentile.

  • A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Corbin Carroll's quickness has declined this year. His 30.05 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.41 ft/sec now.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Arizona Diamondbacks bats collectively rank 28th- in the game for power since the start of last season when using their 6.4% Barrel%.

  • Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Matt Waldron's high usage rate of his secondary pitches (61.2% this year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

  • A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Jackson Merrill has been unlucky this year. His .283 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .413.

  • xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+5.65 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+7.60 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+8.10 Units / 162% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.62 vs San Diego Padres 4.91

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+135
15% ARI
-159
85% SD

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-102
4% UN
8.0/-118
96% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-162
4% ARI
-1.5/+136
96% SD

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
ARI
Team Stats
SD
4.66
ERA
3.83
.253
Batting Avg Against
.237
1.35
WHIP
1.28
.300
BABIP
.289
8.6%
BB%
9.0%
21.9%
K%
23.5%
70.1%
LOB%
75.4%
.254
Batting Avg
.240
.420
SLG
.413
.742
OPS
.739
.323
OBP
.327
ARI
Team Records
SD
16-16
Home
17-21
16-19
Road
19-14
21-21
vRHP
26-22
11-14
vLHP
10-13
9-16
vs>.500
13-11
23-19
vs<.500
23-24
7-3
Last10
4-6
10-10
Last20
11-9
15-15
Last30
15-15
R. Nelson
M. Waldron
125.0
Innings
4.2
24
GS
1
6-7
W-L
0-1
5.47
ERA
3.86
5.90
K/9
3.86
2.66
BB/9
1.93
1.58
HR/9
3.86
69.0%
LOB%
100.0%
12.2%
HR/FB%
28.6%
5.16
FIP
8.63
5.23
xFIP
5.51
.288
AVG
.222
15.2%
K%
10.5%
6.8%
BB%
5.3%
5.20
SIERA
5.55

R. Nelson

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

M. Waldron

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
ARI SD
ARI SD
Consensus
+120
-140
+135
-159
+120
-142
+136
-162
+114
-134
+132
-156
+115
-136
+135
-157
+122
-145
+135
-160
+125
-150
+130
-155
Open
Current
Book
ARI SD
ARI SD
Consensus
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+137)
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-162)
-1.5 (+136)
+1.5 (-160)
-1.5 (+168)
+1.5 (-160)
-1.5 (+132)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-160)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-160)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+145)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+140)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-104)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-112)
8.0 (-108)
7.5 (-118)
7.5 (-102)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (-102)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-109)
8.0 (-104)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (+100)
8.0 (-120)