Calling anyone a safe bet in golf is pretty hard to do. Yes, certain guys are more likely to play well during any given week. When it comes to daily fantasy play, that is all you need to know. But you don’t bet on someone to make the top five or top ten.
You bet for him to win. So– how do you pick a winner?
Many sports are probably going to take the safest route and just go with Brooks Koepka this week. Those that do will not be making a bad choice. He is a two-time defending U.S. Open champion going for his third in a row. With his win at Bethpage last month, he has won four of the last eight majors he has entered.
No one is playing as well as he is on golf’s biggest stages. Had he excelled at one major and then flopped at the next, his record would not be of much help. But he has won four of the last eight that he played in. In the other four, he didn’t do half-bad (two top ten finishes, a t13, and a t39).
So—yeah, betting on Koepka is as safe a bet as you can get. With the odds being what they are, the payout if he does isn’t going to be too shabby. The following are the odds (via BetOnline.ag) for many of the golfers oddsmakers think could contend:
- Brooks Koepka +800
- Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy +900
- Tiger Woods +1200
- Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay +1800
- Justin Rose, Justin Thomas +2200
- Jason Day, Jon Rahm, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele +2500
- Francesco Molinari, Hideki Matsuyama +2800
- Adam Scott, Tommy Fleetwood +3300
- Brandt Snedeker, Bryson Dechambeau, Matt Kuchar, Tony Finau, Webb Simpson +4000
- Henrik Stenson, Paul Casey, Phil Mickelson, Shane Lowry +5000
- Gary Woodland, Louis Oosthuizen, Marc Leishman, Martin Kaymer, Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia +6600
- Bubba Watson, Graeme McDowell, Matt Wallace +8000
However, it is also worth noting that the odds on Koepka translate to an 11.11 percent chance of him winning. That is a whole lot of room for error—or someone else winning. So, if you don’t go with Koepka, then who should you go with?
Tiger? He is going to be a viable candidate to win in every tournament he enters until the day he hangs it up for good. There will always be a chance that he finds that old magic for four consecutive days as he did at the Masters earlier this year. But he has become notoriously unreliable.
There is value to betting on Tiger (he did win the U.S Open at Pebble Beach back in 2000) but don’t bet the house on him.
However, it may be worth putting a little more down on Rory McIlroy. The No. 3 golfer in the world, McIlroy comes into the U.S. Open having won the Canadian Open last week. Other than missing the cut at the Memorial a couple of weeks ago, he has played well for most of the season.
Of the 13 tournaments he has played in, he has made the cut at 12 of them, finished in the top ten at ten of them (top five at six), and has won two. With as well as he has played this season, a case could be made that he is due to win a major.
All he needs is for a roll or two to go his way.