The 2025 US Open at Oakmont Country Club tees off Thursday, June 12, and runs through Sunday, June 15. Here, you will find my 2025 US Open prediction, which I have built on the latest form for each golfer, the course setup, and betting market insights designed to help you to make a smart wager on one of golf’s major tournaments.
Our US Open Pick
Pick: Scottie Scheffler (+275)
Confidence: ★★★★☆
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US Open Preview
Oakmont Country Club, hosting its 10th U.S. Open, is revered for its punishing layout, with narrow fairways, a five‑inch rough, lightning‑fast greens, and 175 bunkers. Historically, winning scores are high here. Dustin Johnson capped at 4‑under in 2016, while Angel Cabrera claimed the title at 5‑over in 2007. That sets the stage for a classic US Open battle, where patience and precision will trump raw power.
Scottie Scheffler enters this tournament off sensational form. The world No. 1 and fresh off a PGA Championship win in May, one of three wins in his last four starts, he’s leading the field in strokes gained and scoring average. He’s carried that momentum into US Open week, drawing 31% of bets and 33% of money in betting markets, with odds tightening to around +275 at most legal US sportsbooks.
Bryson DeChambeau, the defending champion, is listed at +750 but some are fading him due to concerns with iron play, though he remains among the most consistent contenders in majors. Rory McIlroy, the Masters winner, checks in around +1200. He’s a seasoned major contender, but recent struggles since his Masters triumph raise questions about his ability to win here. Others like Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, and Ludvig Aberg also enter near the top of the odds board.
US Open Course Info
- Location: Oakmont Country Club, Oakmont, Pennsylvania
- Par / Yardage: 70, approximately 7,342 yards
- Features: Tight corridors, deep rough, slick, sloped greens, heavy bunker presence
- Host History: Notorious for high scores and demanding course management
Betting Odds
Some of the notable odds to win this tournament from DraftKings Sportsbook are as follows:
- Scottie Scheffler: +275
- Bryson DeChambeau: +750
- Rory McIlroy: +1200
- Jon Rahm: +1200
- Xander Schauffele: +2200
- Collin Morikawa: +2500
- Ludvig Aberg: +3000
- Brooks Koepka: +5500
2025 US Open Prediction
Scheffler’s form cannot be overlooked. His game is dialed in, and while Oakmont demands precision more than distance, his statistical dominance with strokes gained around the green aligns with what Oakmont requires. He’s also handled US Open pressure before, with a top-three showing in 2022.
DeChambeau will be in contention, but concerning iron metrics and the weight of defending champion expectations could hold him back. McIlroy’s momentum from Augusta is real, but recent hiccups suggest a potential struggle over four grueling days. Rahm and Schauffele are solid bets for top‑five finishes, but Scheffler’s blend of iron play, short game, and a mental edge gives him the best chances.
Moreover, the betting markets reflect confidence in Scheffler with heavy backing and shortening lines, now offering an implied win probability of roughly 25%. That still provides value given his form and suitability for Oakmont’s demands.
Final Thoughts
Oakmont 2025 promises the typical US Open test, with punishing conditions that expose every weakness. Scottie Scheffler arrives in peak form, with the tools and temperament needed to dominate. While other stars like DeChambeau, McIlroy, and Rahm hold intrigue, Scheffler looks the most likely champion.
