2026 3M Open Prediction, Tournament Preview & Parlay Picks
Updated July 22, 2026
Updated July 22, 2026
The PGA Tour returns to TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota, for the 2026 3M Open, the first event following The Open Championship and one of the final opportunities for players to improve their FedExCup position before the playoffs begin. While Scottie Scheffler headlines the field in his tournament debut, the event has developed a reputation for producing first-time winners and surprise contenders. Since the tournament joined the PGA Tour schedule in 2019, every champion has followed a different path, and aggressive scoring has been the common theme. Kurt Kitayama returns as defending champion after winning at 23-under par in 2025, while several players arrive with encouraging recent form after strong summer performances. Recent odds from list Scheffler as the clear favorite, with a sizeable gap to the rest of the field, leaving value available throughout the middle tier.
Passing on Scottie Scheffler is never comfortable, especially after another outstanding major championship season, but betting markets have already priced him accordingly. At +265, there is little margin for error over 72 holes, especially on a course where one cold putting round can quickly erase an advantage. TPC Twin Cities rewards aggressive iron play, consistent birdie conversion, and players willing to attack accessible pin positions. McNealy checks each of those boxes while offering far greater betting value.
McNealy's combination of strong approach play, improved putting, and efficient scoring on par 5s fits this course extremely well. He also tends to perform best on layouts where winning scores reach 20-under or lower, exactly the type of tournament the 3M Open has regularly become. With Scheffler carrying such a large share of the betting market, McNealy provides one of the strongest outright values among the leading contenders.
Hideki Matsuyama, Keith Mitchell, Ryan Fox, and Tom Kim also deserve consideration. Matsuyama's elite iron play always gives him a chance if the putter cooperates, Mitchell has the length to attack every scoring opportunity, Ryan Fox continues to produce excellent ball-striking numbers, and Tom Kim enters with renewed confidence after capturing the Genesis Scottish Open earlier this month before missing the cut at Royal Birkdale.
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Scheffler deserves favorite status based on his season-long consistency, but the difference between his odds and everyone else's is too big to justify playing him. Golf tournaments naturally carry significant variance, making extremely short outright prices difficult to bet into. Defending champion Kurt Kitayama has course history working in his favor, while McNealy, Matsuyama, and Mitchell all possess statistics capable of producing another winning score around 20-under par or better.
This combination balances value with probability. McNealy provides the upside needed for a profitable outright ticket without paying the premium attached to Scheffler. Tom Kim's recent victory demonstrates his ceiling remains extremely high, and TPC Twin Cities should suit his approach game after last week's disappointment.
Including Scheffler in the Top 5 market instead of the outright market offers a stronger balance between risk and reward. He has been remarkably consistent throughout the season and remains the most likely player to spend the weekend on the first page of the leaderboard. If McNealy breaks through while Scheffler performs as well as expected, the return for this parlay becomes substantial without relying exclusively on long-shot outcomes.
TPC Twin Cities plays as a par 71 measuring approximately 7,431 yards with bentgrass greens. Originally designed by Arnold Palmer, the course places water in play on 15 holes, rewarding confident shot-making while heavily penalizing poor decisions. Despite the hazards, scoring opportunities are plentiful because receptive greens and reachable par 5s encourage aggressive golf.
Recent winners have generally excelled in Strokes Gained: Approach, birdie average, and par-5 scoring. Players who consistently create birdie chances can quickly separate themselves because the winning total frequently reaches 20-under par or lower. Accuracy remains valuable, but strong iron play and an above-average putting week typically determine the champion. With playoff positions still on the line, expect plenty of aggressive strategy throughout the week as golfers chase one final opportunity before the FedExCup postseason begins.
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