Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Preview & Same Game Parlay – 7/22/2026

Wednesday night in Philadelphia brings the finale of a wild three-game set between two clubs with legitimate World Series aspirations. The Los Angeles Dodgers, owners of the best record in the National League, look to close out this series at Citizens Bank Park with a series win behind Eric Lauer, while the Phillies turn to a struggling Aaron Nola in a bid to claim the rubber match in front of their home crowd.

Our Dodgers vs Phillies Prediction

• Pick: Dodgers Moneyline
• Confidence: 4 out of 5

Dodgers vs Phillies Model Projection

• Score Projection: Dodgers 6 – Phillies 3
• Win Probability: Dodgers 60%, Phillies 40%

Lauer has been the better of the two starters in this matchup for Los Angeles this year, and while his 4.81 ERA does not scream dominance, he has consistently kept the Dodgers in games behind a lineup that ranks among the best in baseball in wRC+ and wOBA. Nola, on the other hand, carries a 5.68 ERA into this outing and has been one of the more hittable starters in the National League.

Add in the fact that the Dodgers bullpen has turned into one of the better relief groups in the league, and the path to a Los Angeles win by two or more runs looks clear. Philadelphia’s offense, led by Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, is capable of erasing a deficit in a hurry, but the Phillies have not hit lefties as well as they have righties this season, which works in Lauer’s favor.

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies
• Date & Time: Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
• Starting Pitchers: LHP Eric Lauer (4-5, 4.81 ERA) vs. RHP Aaron Nola (3-7, 5.68 ERA)
• Stadium: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
• Broadcast: MLB.tv

Dodgers vs Phillies Same Game Parlay

• Leg 1: Dodgers Moneyline (-120)
• Leg 2: Under 9.5 Total Runs (-113)
• Leg 3: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120)

Combined odds for this parlay come in at +550. The logic here is straightforward: Lauer has given the Dodgers length in most of his starts this season, which keeps the total from ballooning even against a Phillies lineup with pop, while Ohtani has provided extra-base hits in bunches all year against right-handed pitching, while facing a pitcher in Nola who has struggled to miss bats.

Betting Trends & H2H

• Season head-to-head: Dodgers lead 3-2 in 5 meetings this season, including a 2-1 win last night.
• Los Angeles is 33-19 on the road this season.
• Philadelphia sits at 27-24 at home this year.
• The under is 55-47 in Dodgers games in 2026.
• The under is 55-42-5 in games involving the Phillies this season.

Stat Comparison

The numbers tell a fairly one-sided story on offense, with Los Angeles holding a clear advantage in every hitting category listed above. The pitching picture is more nuanced. The Phillies’ team xFIP actually rates better than their ERA would suggest, hinting at some bad luck on balls in play, but their bullpen has been worked hard in this series and Nola himself has been an outlier in the wrong direction all season. That combination of a slumping ace and a red-hot Dodgers offense is why Los Angeles is favored to leave Philadelphia with a series win.

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Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.

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