We needed sports drama. We needed something to get excited about. To this point, UFC, NASCAR, and the PGA Tour have truly delivered. We’ll see if that is the case again this week with the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club.
Course history handicappers don’t have a whole lot of data to use because this is only the second iteration of this event. Nate Lashley went wire-to-wire last year with a dynamic putting display and a huge edge in strokes gained over the rest of the field. That probably won’t happen this time around with a stronger set of players on hand for the event, but this field is down a few notches from what we’ve previously seen over the past three tournaments.
While it is always better to dwell on who is there because those are the only guys we can bet, it is worth noting that guys like Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Patrick Cantlay, Sergio Garcia, and Brooks Koepka will be off doing other things this weekend. As a result, the odds have changed on a lot of the guys that we have seen in the 80/1 to 120/1 range.
The favorite is Bryson DeChambeau, who racked up a third straight top-10 finish at last week’s Travelers Championship. DeChambeau has been putting on a laser show off the tee and has also rolled it really well on the greens, so he is a deserving +650 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. He is +150 for a top-five finish and -137 for his fourth straight top-10 result.
The RBC Heritage winner, Webb Simpson, is the second favorite at +1100, with PGA Tour strokes gained leader Tyrrell Hatton at +1400, and then Patrick Reed at +1600 and Hideki Matsuyama at +2000 to round out the five shortest prices. Reed finished fifth in this event last year and Matsuyama was 13th. The other three players were not involved.
There is one guy of great interest below +5000 for this week. Viktor Hovland is the guy. Hovland has had some issues with the putter this season, which is concerning given that this event was big on strokes gained putting last year, but Hovland led the field last week at the Travelers in SG: Tee-to-Green and was deadly accurate on Approach. The top 13 in SG: Approach all made the cut in the Rocket Mortgage Classic last year, even though the cut line was 5-under, the highest for a PGA Tour event since 2016.
Hovland was 14th in SG: T2G at the RBC Heritage and 20th in the Charles Schwab Challenge. He finished 13th here last year, but read the greens quite well. If he can putt, he can finish and +2500 is a great price and a much better price than what most places are offering.
Hovland is +650 to be the best finisher of the group with DeChambeau, Simpson, Hatton, and Reed. DraftKings has all sorts of matchup options and prop bets for the tournament, so be sure to scan through all of those. Hovland at -118 over Sungjae Im is one example.
The 50/1 crop is really interesting. Guys like JT Poston and Doc Redman have played really well. Redman is a tee-to-green wizard that just hasn’t figured out the putting on a regular basis, but the Clemson product has a very bright future on the PGA Tour. He puts on a stripe show and is a really underrated iron player. Poston is one of the best putters on Tour.
We talked about Redman last week for the Travelers. He was +30000 in that event. Now he’s +5000. That is one of the tough things about golf betting. You catch a guy early and you get good prices, but if he plays well and doesn’t win, those values are pretty much gone. Redman was also the runner-up here last year, which depressed his price.
This is a decent price on Poston, given that he has been in this range with more regularity and now faces a lesser field. Poston was 11th last year. He missed the cut last week at TPC River Highlands, but was eighth at the RBC Heritage and 10th at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Poston is seventh in SG: Putting per the official PGA Tour website.
Poston is 30th in par 4 birdie or better percentage and Redman is 33rd. That is a huge stat this week because the par 5s are all birdie holes for these guys. Par 4 scoring will be the difference. That is actually one area that is lacking for Hovland, largely because of his putting.
If nothing else, Poston is +800 for a top five and +450 for a top 10. Redman is +900 and +500, respectively, which are not bad prices at all. Redman is also -112 for a better finish than Harold Varner III, which is a solid look.
Of the triple-digit prices, Brian Stuard stands out. He came up a little bit short last year, but Stuard is the hometown kid here. The Jackson, Michigan native played his college golf at Oakland University in the Detroit metro area. Not surprisingly, as the only guy with extensive experience at this course, he led the field in SG: Putting. He struggled in other areas, but finished tied for fifth. That would be a +2000 payout this year, with +1000 for a top-10 finish. He is +12500 to win. He is -112 in a head-to-head matchup with Tom Hoge.
Another good bet is Adam Hadwin over Brian Harman at -112. Hadwin is 10th in par 4 birdie or better percentage this season. Harman, who missed the cut last week at a course where he has had pretty good success, is 50th.
While there are a lot of great bets, there is also at least one great promotion this week at DraftKings. Sign up, deposit, and opt-in to be eligible for this one. Bet $25 or more on any golfer to win and you will win $3 in free bets for every shot under par that they finish. Nate Lashley won this event last year at 25-under, which would mean $75 worth of free bets with this promotion.
The promotion only applies to the first player that you bet, so if you want to bet multiple guys to win the tournament, make sure you choose wisely with your free bet promotion. This is only eligible for players in Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, or West Virginia.
Good luck with your bets this week!