We may not have gotten as much drama as we wanted out of The Masters, but we did get history. Hideki Matsuyama won and Will Zalatoris had a stellar tournament finishing second in his first start. One of those two will be in the RBC Heritage and it’s not the one that is the new owner of a green jacket.
Zalatoris is one of many big names that will be on hand at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, South Carolina for this Invitational Tournament. The Invitational status doesn’t mean as much here with a lot of top players taking the week off, so alternates and those that fell just under the criteria initially will hop in and play, but it is still a solid field and a picturesque golf course in the Palmetto State.
We’ll find some picks and plays and some players to back for this week’s festivities.
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RBC Heritage Betting Odds
Webb Simpson is the reigning champion and the clear-cut +850 favorite this week. It is weird not to see Dustin Johnson’s name first, but he hasn’t been in great form lately and missed the cut at The Masters, so he sits at +1250. Patrick Cantlay and Matthew Fitzpatrick are +1700, while you’ve got some stellar players in the 20s with Collin Morikawa, Tyrrell Hatton, Will Zalatoris, Daniel Berger, Paul Casey, Corey Conners, and Cameron Smith.
While we have some really big names here, consider the recent winners. Simpson won the tournament in June last year, when it did not follow The Masters and a lot of guys were just happy to be playing during the pandemic. CT Pan, Satoshi Kodaira, Wesley Bryan, Branden Grace, Jim Furyk, Matt Kuchar, Graeme McDowell, Carl Pettersson, Brandt Snedeker, and Brian Gay are the winners dating back to 2009 when the tournament is played right after The Masters.
In other words, don’t be afraid to look down the board here for some options.
Harbour Town Golf Links
Wind can be a factor on this coastal course, but that’s true of every coastal course, so you knew that already. This is a course that really rewards accuracy with the first and second shot. This is not a long track, but a fairly narrow track and one that has some small and well-protected greens. Very few of these holes are straight, as there are a lot of bends and doglegs to this course.
Driving accuracy, iron play, and scrambling are all really important attributes on this course. Being a par 71 means one fewer par 5. We’ve seen a lot of players, including Matsuyama last week at Augusta, really use the par 5s to their advantage this season. Most are reachable in two for today’s players. Here, length is less of a factor and there is one fewer par 5, so it comes down to par 3 and par 4 scoring and that means hitting GIRs and setting up birdie putts with shots that are in close proximity to the hole.
Who Has Had Success Here?
A lot of players have done well here, but not the usual list of names we would expect to see. Guys like Rory Sabbatini have four top-10 finishes here and a 21st last year. Is 140/1 a good enough price to take a shot?
How about Kevin Streelman at 66/1? He had a couple top-10 finishes prior to missing the cut at 2-under last year. Similar success has followed Kevin Kisner, whose price is shorter at 55/1, but he has three top-11 finishes to his name at Harbour Town. He’s a reliable guy off the tee with an excellent putting stroke.
Speaking of reliable and good with the putter, Ian Poulter has four straight top-15 finishes in his starts in Hilton Head. He’s also lined at 55/1. Maybe the best bet on the board is Si Woo Kim, who sits at 50/1 with a recent runner-up in 2018 and some very good recent form.
If you really want to go off the board, Luke Donald has five second-place finishes and two third-place finishes at his 600/1 price tag.
He’s hard to root for unless you have a bet on him, but Matt “Aw, Shucks” Kuchar is 45/1 with five top-10 finishes here and that aforementioned 2014 win. Branden Grace is easier to root for and 80/1 with a win in the past.
Who Has Had Recent Success?
Whether you prefer course form or recent form, we try to mention both in our golf write-ups. Corey Conners is one of the guys with a short price, but he’s got four top-15 finishes in his last four stroke play events. That seems good.
Si Woo Kim has the course form and the recent form with three straight top-25 finishes, including a 12th last week at The Masters. Paul Casey was just outside the top 25 at Augusta, but had a couple of top-10 outcomes prior to that. Certainly Zalatoris, who was second last weekend, is in some special form. As is Cameron Smith.
Charley Hoffman is playing well and has been a regular at this event, so that could be interesting. He was second at the Valero Texas Open and had a couple of top-20 finishes during the Florida swing.
RBC Heritage Picks
Si Woo Kim and Ian Poulter are my top two choices this week. Kim is in very good form and 10th in Scrambling, which is important at this course. He has also played well here in the past. Poulter is another top-notch scrambler that ranks fourth in Scrambling. His iron play has been subpar this season, but he’s got a fairway finder off the tee and that helps him here.
A big balloon price this week for matchups, to win, or if you partake in DFS is Chez Reavie. Reavie’s recent form is nothing to write home about, but he’s 10th in driving accuracy, ninth in SG: Approach, and needs the shorter courses because he’s not long off the tee. He’s 175/1, but 14/1 for a top-10 finish is a pretty nice price.
Chris Kirk at 60/1 has had a couple of top-10 finishes recently and grades in the top 20 in Scrambling and hits a high rate of fairways.
Golf Channel and CBS have the coverage of the RBC Heritage this week.
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For additional thoughts on this week’s RBC Heritage, Brian Blessing did a video for our ATS YouTube page:
