The PGA Tour’s return was a smashing success last week. There were no positive coronavirus cases among the players or tournament personnel and fans were treating to a dramatic finish made for TV with heartbreaking missed putts and a great storyline with Daniel Berger’s win.
Berger had a career-threatening wrist injury and worked hard to get back into form, including his extra time during the lockdown to work on his game. It paid immediate dividends and also gave a handsome payout to those that took him.
Now we move on to the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, SC. This event usually follows the Masters, so despite its Invitational status, the field is often lacking. That is not the case this year at all. The top five in the Official World Golf Ranking – Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, and Dustin Johnson – are all on hand, with everybody but DJ a pretty rare attendee for this event.
Not surprisingly, Rory is the +1200 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. For the foreseeable future, unless second favorite Bryson DeChambeau or somebody like Thomas or Rahm win a tournament, if Rory is there, he will be the favorite. This is Rory’s first trip to Harbour Town, but he is a threat to win no matter what.
Harbour Town is a modest par 71 that plays about 7,100 yards. Like last week at Colonial, distance off the tee is not a prerequisite for winning, like it has been at so many other courses on the PGA Tour calendar. Once again, hitting fairways and making putts will be essential. The top guys in strokes gained approach all did very well last week, so iron play will be at a premium as well.
That is one of many reasons why Collin Morikawa faces another short-ish price at +2800. Morikawa certainly had his chances to win last week and even biffed a playoff hole putt on 17 that would have forced a 74th hole. Many say he is the best iron player on tour already and the odds reflect that. He is +550 to capture another top-five finish and +335 to score a top-10 result.
That is the beauty of golf betting odds at DraftKings. Picking the winner of these things is extremely hard, and we will have some picks for that, but there are so many prop bets and alternative betting options at your disposal. It really is an impressive catalog for those in Indiana, Colorado, New Jersey, Iowa, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and New Hampshire.
Last week’s winner, Daniel Berger, is +3500 to make it back-to-back and that is where some of the fun prices start. Justin Rose is also +3500 after a nice showing last week. Gary Woodland scored a top-10 finish and so did Sungjae Im, who are also +3500.
One guy who was surprisingly pedestrian last week was Matt Kuchar, who missed the cut despite having a lot of past success at Colonial. He’s +4000 this week at another course where he has had some strong finishes, including a win in 2014, a runner-up last year, and five top-10 finishes dating back to 2008. Kuchar just did not have a feel for the putter last week at all.
Tyrrell Hatton, who actually leads the PGA Tour in SG: Total this season and SG: Tee-to-Green, is also +4000. There are a lot of exceptional players in the 20 to 40/1 range this week.
Alright, let’s get down to a few picks to win outright. How about Matthew Fitzpatrick at +5500? Fitzpatrick probably deserved a better fate last week. He was in the top five in SG: Putting and 15th in driving accuracy. Those things usually lead to a good finish at Colonial, but his iron play failed him and he finished 32nd. This could be a bit of a better fit for Fitzpatrick, as his European Tour background and the links elements of this course could very well work in perfect harmony.
Ian Poulter is another one at +5500 that makes a lot of sense. Poulter spent some time in the rough at Colonial, but finished 20th in SG: Putting to come up with a decent finish in 29th. Poulter has finished in the top 11 each of the last three years and this tournament no longer follows the Masters, where Poulter has generally played well, but has had some emotional rounds. This week, he can simply focus on this event, at a course where he plays very well.
My favorite bet on the board this week is Rory Sabbatini at +10000. A 100/1 shot is great number for a guy that finished 14th last week and has four top-10 and six top-25 finishes over the last decade-plus at Harbour Town. Sabbatini could have played a tad better on approach last week, but he was a top-five putter and played from the fairway a lot. If nothing else, +1600 for a top-five finish and +750 for a top-10 finish are both solid.
This one isn’t a pick, but as we look down the board for a home run play, reigning champion CT Pan is +60000 at DraftKings. He missed the cut last week at Colonial, but that is a huge number for a reigning champ. We’ve seen this be a horse for course event, with a guy like Luke Donald, who has been the tournament’s best man five times, but has never been the groom. Boo Weekley also won back-to-back years in 2007-08. Jim Furyk is also a two-time winner and a two-time runner-up here.
For another big number, 2017 champ Wesley Bryan is +75000.
Some head-to-head matchups and some group matchups are also posted at DraftKings. Fitzpatrick and Poulter are unfortunately together in Group E with Hatton, Viktor Hovland, and Rafael Cabrera-Bello, so there isn’t a lot of value there, but somebody like JT Poston at +400 in Group F with Kuchar, Kevin Kisner, Abraham Ancer, and Billy Horschel might not be a bad look. Poston was sixth here last year and 10th last week. The North Carolina native scored his first win last year at Sedgefield Country Club in the Wyndham Championship in his native state. He’s down one state on the Atlantic seaboard, but should still play well here.
Maverick McNealy is -120 in his head-to-head with Matthew Wolff. McNealy played better than Wolff last week in SG: Putting, driving accuracy, and SG: Approach. With this long layoff, though the sample sizes are small, they seem actionable.
The Golf Channel and PGA Tour Live will have early coverage and then CBS will have Saturday and Sunday coverage from 3 p.m. ET to 6 p.m. ET. Be sure to look for updated odds and matchups throughout the tournament at DraftKings as well.
