We’re only one week away from the next major. As a result, we have a very top-heavy field for the AT&T Byron Nelson. Some of golf’s best are on hand in hopes of getting the rough edges smoothed out before heading to South Carolina for the PGA Championship at Kiawah Island.
Others are taking the week off to rest up or head to the Palmetto State early to get some swings in on the Ocean Course. We’ll focus on who is on hand instead of who isn’t for the AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch, which takes over for Trinity Forest Golf Club after a lack of interest from the players.
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AT&T Byron Nelson Odds
(editor’s note; article was written before Dustin Johnson WD from the event – we don’t like to edit what has already been posted for transparency sake)
Jon Rahm is the favorite at +850 this week in just his second event since The Masters. He missed the cut last week in the Wells Fargo, so it’s a good thing he’ll get some competitive swings in here before the PGA Championship. Bryson DeChambeau was ninth last week at Quail Hollow, but thought he had missed the cut, so it’s obvious that his game needs work. He is listed at +900 this week.
Dustin Johnson has finished outside the top 25 in five straight events, so he’s +1200 alongside Jordan Spieth, who won in Texas a few weeks back at the Valero Open. Daniel Berger is the only other player under 20/1 with his +1700 price tag. We haven’t heard much from the oft-injured Berger lately, but he’s in this field.
Masters champ Hideki Matsuyama leads the crowd in the 20s at +2000, followed by Matthew Fitzpatrick and Scottie Scheffler at +2200 and then Brooks Koepka and Will Zalatoris at +2600. That rounds it out for the best of the best in the field, but Sam Burns and Marc Leishman are recent winners at +3500.
It is a full-field event vying for a piece of the $8.1 million prize pool.
TPC Craig Ranch – A New PGA Tour Venue
TPC Craig Ranch takes over for Trinity Forest Golf Club. Trinity Forest, a converted landfill, did not draw rave reviews from players and the event simply had a lackluster field in its two years. The PGA Tour bailed on its four-year commitment and signed a five-year deal with TPC Craig Ranch.
This course winds in and around the Rowlett Creek and actually has trees, unlike Trinity Forest. It will play as a par 72 that comes in around 7,450 yards with bentgrass greens. Like most courses in the current PGA Tour rotation, we might as well focus on SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Approach. We don’t know much about this course, but those are safe bets nonetheless. There are some long par 4s here, so par 4 scoring and proximity to the hole with long irons could be useful as well.
Course Form Data
We don’t really have any. This course has hosted the Nationwide/Web.com Tour finales twice and has been part of the Q School, so some of the more recent PGA Tour graduates may have some exposure here.
Not all of these players are in the field, but some of them are. James Hahn was the runner-up in the 2012 Web.com final here. Adam Hadwin was third. Russell Henley was sixth. Luke List was 13th. Brice Garnett finished in the top 20. Hahn, List, and Garnett are in the field at +15000, +7000, and +12500, respectively.
Sung Kang is a member at this course. He’s also the reigning champion of this event, having won at Trinity Forest in 2019.
Recent Form Data
A lot of the top players in this field have either not played well lately or have not played much lately. Matsuyama hasn’t played since The Masters. Berger and Fitzpatrick have played once. Rahm has played twice, with a seventh and a MC. DJ was 13th at the RBC Heritage and finished 48th two weeks ago. Zalatoris, the runner-up from The Masters, has finished 42nd and missed a cut.
Ryan Palmer is a guy on my list this week to play. The native Texan from Amarillo has four top-20 finishes in his last six events. He also has to have some measure of exposure on this course, I would think.
Jordan Spieth has not played since The Masters, but has four top-10 finishes in his last five events and is another native Texan. Marc Leishman won the Zurich Classic with teammate Cam Smith. Sam Burns won two weeks ago and was fourth the week prior.
Peter Uihlein and John Catlin are two guys that have won recently on the European Tour and they’ll tee it up here. Keith Mitchell just finished third to Rory McIlroy and Abraham Ancer at Quail Hollow for his second top-five finish in three weeks.
AT&T Byron Nelson Picks
As mentioned, Ryan Palmer makes my list at +5000 this week. He’s also +400 for a top-10 finish, which is a decent bet. As a member here, it’s hard not to throw $5 on Sung Kang. It’s probably healthier for you than a Hot N’ Ready Pizza at +35000.
We may not know a lot about the course, but Doug Ghim is 10th in SG: Approach. That kind of skill set should play well just about anywhere. Ghim isn’t a bad look at +7000.
Brooks Koepka is +200 to NOT make the cut this week. Coming off of major knee surgery, Koepka has only played one event. He’s looking to test his knee for the PGA Championship. This seems like a big ask on a new course. I like that bet this week as well.
Check out Golf Channel and CBS for coverage of the AT&T Byron Nelson this week.
For another perspective on the AT&T Byron Nelson, check out Brian Blessing’s thoughts from our ATS YouTube page: