The game between the Texas A&M Aggies and Texas Longhorns on Friday night is more than just a rivalry game. This game will help decide who advances to the SEC Championship Game and shape College Football Playoff seeding. A&M is sitting at a perfect 11‑0 and in a prime position to secure a top‑four seed. Before kickoff from Austin, keep reading to get my Texas A&M vs Texas prediction for Black Friday’s main event in college football.
Our Texas A&M vs Texas Pick
Pick: Texas A&M -2.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Texas A&M Aggies vs Texas Longhorns
- Date & Time: Friday, November 28, 2025, 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: DKR‑Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
- Broadcast: ABC
Key Storylines
- Big stakes for A&M: An Aggie win locks up a berth in the SEC Championship Game and keeps their hopes for a first‑round bye in the College Football Playoff intact. They are ranked third in the latest rankings going into this game. Texas is looking for a signature win to close out their regular season and improve their bowl prospects.
- Historic rivalry returns to Austin: This is the first time the Lone Star Showdown has been played in Austin since 2010. The Longhorns hold a commanding all-time series lead, but recent meetings have been competitive and the Aggies are the better team right now.
- Defensive weakness: While A&M’s defense excels between the 20s, their red zone unit ranks near the bottom of the FBS. That’s a glaring issue that a motivated Texas offense will try to exploit.
- Trench battle matters: A&M’s offensive line has given QB Marcel Reed time all season and should be able to weather Texas’s pass rush. A&M’s defensive front will need to pressure Texas QB Arch Manning and force mistakes if the Aggies want to stay undefeated.
Quarterback Play
Marcel Reed has been the leader of Texas A&M’s offense all season. He has thrown for over 2,700 yards with 25 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. His poise and efficiency will be critical against a Longhorns defense looking to play spoiler for the Aggies in rivalry weekend.
Arch Manning enters this game with confirdnece after a 389‑yard, four‑touchdown performance in Texas’ last game against Arkansas. If his offensive line holds, Manning’s ability to push the ball downfield and exploit A&M’s red‑zone issues could keep Texas competitive deep into the fourth quarter.
Betting Trends
- A&M is 5‑6‑0 against the spread this season.
- Texas is 3-7-1 against the spread going into Friday night.
- The over has hit in 8 of Texas A&M’s 11 games.
- The under has hit in 6 of the first 11 games for the Longhorns.
Texas A&M vs Texas Model Projection
Score Projection: Texas A&M 30 – Texas 24
Win Probability: Texas A&M 58%, Texas 42%
Final Thoughts
This might be the biggest game in Texas A&M history in the modern era of the program. I am expecting the Aggies to win on the road and cover the spread in this contest against a Texas team that isn’t as consistent moving the ball through the air.
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