The first semifinal of the College Football Playoffs is set for Saturday afternoon when the #3 TCU Horned Frogs (12-1) battle the Michigan Wolverines (13-0). TCU was the regular season Big 12 champion but lost in the conference championship game. Michigan ran the table in the Big Ten and took care of business in the conference championship. Below is my college football pick for TCU vs Michigan.
TCU vs Michigan Betting Pick
| ℹ️ The Pick: | Michigan -7.5 |
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This game will be played at State Farm Stadium at 4:00 p.m. on Saturday, December 31, 2022.
Why Bet Michigan -7.5
✅ Michigan is 4-1 against the spread in their last five games played.
✅ The Wolverines are 4-2 ATS in their last six games against Big 12 opponents.
✅ TCU is 1-2 ATS in their last three games
NCAAFB
TCU Horned Frogs
Michigan Wolverines
Team Stats
Passing
Offense/Defense
| TCU | Passing | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| 26.6 | CMP | 21.5 |
| 39 | ATT | 34.6 |
| 68.2 | CMP% | 62.1 |
| 329.6 | Y/G | 232.8 |
| 8.5 | Y/A | 6.7 |
| 2.4 | TD/G | 1.7 |
Defense/Offense
| TCU | Passing | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | CMP | 14.4 |
| 29.5 | ATT | 24.2 |
| 57.6 | CMP% | 59.5 |
| 186.5 | Y/G | 134.6 |
| 6.3 | Y/A | 5.6 |
| 1.2 | TD/G | 1 |
Rushing
Offense/Defense
| TCU | Rushing | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| 29.7 | ATT | 30.5 |
| 110.0 | Y/G | 102.4 |
| 3.7 | Y/A | 3.4 |
| 1.8 | TD/G | 1.0 |
Defense/Offense
| TCU | Rushing | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| 40.1 | ATT | 35.8 |
| 172.1 | Y/G | 155.5 |
| 4.3 | Y/A | 4.3 |
| 1.9 | TD/G | 1.2 |
Special Teams
| TCU | Special Teams | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| 3.2 | Punts-GM | 4.5 |
| 41.3 | Punt Avg | 42.2 |
| 1.4 | Kick Ret GM | 1.9 |
| 19.1 | Kick Ret Avg | 20.1 |
| 2.1 | Punt Ret GM | 1.3 |
| 10.8 | Punt Ret Avg | 10.5 |
Betting Trends
| TCU | Betting Trends | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 2-1-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 3-0-0 |
| 1-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 2-1-0 |
| 39.67 | Avg Score | 35.67 |
| 24.33 | Avg Opp Score | 20.67 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 3-0-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 3-0-0 |
| 2-1-0 | ATS W/L/P | 2-1-0 |
| 29 | Avg Score | 32 |
| 23 | Avg Opp Score | 14 |
| TCU | Betting Trends | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 4-1-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 5-0-0 |
| 3-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 4-1-0 |
| 34 | Avg Score | 38.6 |
| 21.4 | Avg Opp Score | 16.4 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 5-0-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 5-0-0 |
| 3-1-1 | ATS W/L/P | 3-2-0 |
| 33.4 | Avg Score | 33.2 |
| 26.8 | Avg Opp Score | 13.2 |
| TCU | Betting Trends | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 9-1-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 10-0-0 |
| 6-3-1 | ATS W/L/P | 6-4-0 |
| 38.5 | Avg Score | 35.5 |
| 26.1 | Avg Opp Score | 15.7 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 6-4-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 9-1-0 |
| 4-5-1 | ATS W/L/P | 5-5-0 |
| 27.9 | Avg Score | 37.7 |
| 34.1 | Avg Opp Score | 14.4 |
Head to Head
Teams Last 10
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TCU Horned Frogs
Last time out, TCU suffered their first loss of the season when they fell 31-28, in overtime, to #10 Kansas State. The loss in the Big 12 Championship Game will be disappointing, but the Horned Frogs were playing with fire all season and they finally got burned. Kansas State led most of the game and got a big goal line stand in OT to lead them to victory. The Wildcats covered the one-point spread.
Max Duggan went 18/36 for 251 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and led the team with 110 yards and one touchdown on the ground. TCU ran the ball 37 times for 218 yards, a 5.9 average, and two touchdowns in the loss. Defensively, TCU allowed 404 total yards and recovered one Kansas State fumble.
Through 13 games, TCU is scoring 40.3 points per game and gaining 473.0 yards, 273.0 through the air and 200.0 on the ground. Defensively, the Horned Frogs allow 25.0 points and 385.1 yards, 235.6 passing and 149.5 rushing.
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan wrapped up the Big Ten Championship, and an unbeaten regular season, with a 43-22 win over Purdue. This was a close game in the first half, with Michigan leading by just one at the half, but it was all Wolverines after the half. Michigan scored 14 straight points to start the half and never looked back as they went on to cover the 15.5-point spread.
J.J. McCarthy went 11/17 for 161 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. Michigan ran the ball 38 times for 225 yards, a 5.9 average, and three touchdowns in the win. Defensively, the Wolverines allowed 456 total yards and forced two Purdue interceptions.
After 13 games, Michigan is scoring 40.1 points per game and gaining 453.5 yards, 210.5 through the air and 243.0 on the ground. Defensively, the Wolverines allow 13.4 points and 277.1 yards, 191.8 passing and 85.2 rushing.
