Miami Hurricanes vs Ole Miss Rebels Fiesta Bowl Prediction & Odds - 1/8/2026
Updated August 18, 2026
Updated August 18, 2026
The Miami Hurricanes and Ole Miss Rebels will meet in the semifinals of the College Football Playoff at the Fiesta Bowl in Glendale. Both teams pulled off upsets in the quarterfinal round of the playoff, with Miami knocking off defending champion Ohio State and Ole Miss defeating SEC rivals Georgia. Both teams are just two wins away from a national title. Who will advance to the natty? Continue reading to get my Miami vs Ole Miss prediction.
Pick: | Ole Miss +2.5 |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
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Neither of these teams received first-round byes in this year's College Football Playoff. But that didn't stop them from advancing to the semifinals. Ole Miss beat up on Tulane before upsetting Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, thanks to an incredible second-half performance from Trinidad Chambliss. The Rebels lost head coach Lane Kiffin before the start of the playoff, but haven't missed a beat and are now just a win from a national title game appearance. But Ole Miss' defense was a concern in the fourth quarter against Georgia and that will need to be cleaned up if the Rebs are going to get to the final.
Miami was the last at-large selection in this year's playoff and many (myself included) had doubts about their inclusion in the tournament. But Miami got a road win against Texas A&M in the first round before shutting down Ohio State in the semifinals at the Cotton Bowl. Miami's pass rush made life miserable for Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin throughout that game and they will look to do the same to Chambliss in this semifinal matchup.
Carson Beck has not been all that effective for Miami in the College Football Playoff. He has thrown for just 241 yards combined in Miami's two playoff wins. But Beck has two touchdown passes and no interception during this playoff run and he could lead Miami to another victory if he avoids turning the ball over.
For Ole Miss, Trinidad Chambliss has been nothing short of sensational. Chambliss threw for over 300 yards against Georgia in the quarterfinals, making some incredible throws on the run while improvising with his receivers. He may need to do more of that against a very good Miami pass rush.
Score Projection: Ole Miss 28, Miami 24
Win Probability: Ole Miss 52%, Miami 48%
I think we are in for a great game in the semifinals of this year's College Football Playoff at the Fiesta Bowl. I give a slight edge to Ole Miss in this game, as they have a more reliable quarterback going into a game that will almost certainly be close. Miami won't make it easy for the Rebels, but Ole Miss will make the title game while Lane Kiffin has to watch from Baton Rouge.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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