Updated August 28, 2026
The Big 12 may have lost the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners, but there is still a ton of talent in the conference. Between that talent and the constant intrigue around Deion Sanders' Colorado program, the Big 12 championship race is one of the most talked about in college football. Here, we take a look at the chances of each team to win the Big 12 title and look at the top contenders in the market.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are the defending Big 12 champions, having defeated the BYU Cougars in last season's Big 12 title game. They are expected to win this conference again in 2026, according to the traders at Polymarket. But the quarterback position will be a question mark after all of the controversy surrounding ex-QB Brendan Sorsby, who is no longer with the program.
As a result, there isn't a lot of experience at the quarterback position for this Red Raiders team. They will try to make up for that with their defense and running game. But it remains to be seen how the Red Raiders will handle things if they are forced to air it out late in must-win games.
BYU is expected to be in the mix to win the Big 12 title this year after falling short in the conference championship game a season ago. Bear Bachmeier is back at quarterback for the Cougars after throwing for over 3,000 yards with the program a season ago. A leap from Bachmeier in his second year in Provo could be just what the Cougars need to get over the hump in the Big 12.
The schedule for BYU this season looks incredibly favorable. Outside of a tough non-conference matchup against Notre Dame, the Cougars might not play a ranked team this year. But BYU will still need to take care of business to contend for the conference title and a spot in the College Football Playoff.
There is a pack of teams under BYU and Texas Tech who could rise up the ranks and contend for the Big 12 championship. Utah lost its head coach to the Michigan Wolverines, but they will still be expected to get after it defensively. Kansas State could also be in the mix, as their style of football is rarely attractive, but usually effective.
And while Oklahoma State is not expected to win the league this year, they will be a fascinating watch this season. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker led all of FBS last season in passing yardage as a member of the North Texas Mean Green. At a Big 12 school, he will try to put up similar numbers to help the Cowboys turn some heads.
From a pricing standpoint, BYU is a more attractive selection than Texas Tech at this point in time. The Red Raiders still have plenty to figure out on offense, which could hurt them early in conference play. And with the price disparity between the top two contenders, we'll go with the Cougars to get it done instead of the market favorite.
