Updated August 26, 2026
The Heisman Trophy is the top individual award in all of college sports, awarded to the top player in college football each season. Quarterbacks tend to dominate the race to win this award, but there is always the possiblity of a player from another position making a run for the Heisman as well. Here, we break down the prediction market pricing to win the Heisman this season, along with our prediction on who is going to claim the hardware.
CJ Carr of Notre Dame is among the market favorites to win the Heisman according to the above pricing data from Polymarket. Carr had a good year last season at Notre Dame, throwing 24 touchdown passes to just 6 interceptions. And the conditions surrounding Carr this season could mean bigger numbers and a real shot at the Heisman.
The fact that star running back Jeremiyah Love is no longer with the program and has moved onto the NFL should help Carr from a statistical standpoint. Love was a workhorse back who got the ball a ton and prevented Carr from racking up big numbers through the air. With Love gone, Carr's numbers could elevate to a Heisman level.
Also working in Carr's favor is Notre Dame's schedule as an independent. The Irish only have a couple of legitimately challenging games on their schedule this season. If Carr can help Notre Dame get through the regular season without any losses, the Heisman could be his to lose.
Also on the list of early Heisman favorites is Texas quarterback Arch Manning. Manning accounted for 36 touchdowns between his passing and rushing numbers last season. This year, he has Texas in the preseason top 5 in the rankings, and will be seen as a Heisman contender all season if he can keep Texas there throughout the year.
The big question for those making college football predictions this year is whether Manning can live up to the hype for the Longhorns. He was not all that good in Texas' games against Ohio State, Oklahoma, or Georgia last year. He will need to deliver in big games to win the Heisman this time around.
There is a recent history of quarterbacks coached by Lincoln Riley winning the Heisman Trophy. Jayden Maiava will attempt to become the next quarterback to accomplish that feat this season. Maiava finished 5th in college football in passing yardage last season and will try to build on that en route to a Heisman season in 2026.
Limiting turnovers in hostile environments will be the key to Maiava's Heisman chances this season. He threw a pair of interceptions on the road against Notre Dame and did the same later in the year at Oregon. That won't fly if he wants to beat out this year's Heisman field.
This season, there is a non-quarterback who is a strong contender to win the Heisman. Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has a similar market price to some of the top quarterbacks in the country going into this season. Smith finished top 10 in the country in receiving yards, touchdowns, and receptions last year. He will be expected to put up even bigger numbers this year and could grab the Heisman as a result.
Of course, any player that isn't a quarterback has to have an incredible season to contend for the Heisman. Players like DeVonta Smith, Derrick Henry, and Travis Hunter are recent examples. But they all put up massive numbers and impacted their teams in huge ways, something any non-QB needs to do to win the Heisman.
Right now, we are going to take our chances with Jeremiah Smith to win the Heisman. He will need to put up huge numbers to win it from the wide receiver spot. But he is more than capable of putting up those kinds of numbers on a weekly basis. We'll take him at a much better price than the favorites listed above at this stage of the year.
