Updated September 14, 2026
The College Football Playoff national championship trophy is the biggest prize in collegiate athletics, as elite programs from around the country try to secure the trophy for this season. Throughout this year, you can check back here for the latest prediction market prices in the race for the CFP title, and get our analysis of the market.
The Polymarket prediction market pricing above shows that there are many teams with a solid chance to win the College Football Playoff early in the 2026 campaign. Several teams have been priced at 10% or higher to get the job done, but nobody has fully separated themselves from the pack as a clear favorite.
Of course, that will change as the season wears on and conference play gets going, as teams will begin to eliminate one another from playoff contention. But for now, a case can be made for a large chunk of teams that are looking to prove that they are the best in this sport.
Those making college football predictions know that the Ohio State Buckeyes have been a fixture at or near the top of the rankings for many years. They won a national title two seasons ago and will look to get back to the top of the mountain this year. The question will be whether they can survive the gauntlet that is the Big Ten in good enough shape for that to happen.
The Buckeyes have road games against defending champions Indiana and USC to deal with in conference play, along with home dates against Oregon and Michigan. Ryan Day's team lost a non-conference matchup with the Texas Longhorns, blowing a huge lead. If Ohio State is going to win it all this year, they will certainly be battle-tested by the end of the season and will need to bounce back from the loss to Texas.
Texas made an early statement this season during non-conference play, beating Ohio State at home in a battle of top-five teams. But that won't matter if the Longhorns don't perform at a high level during the SEC season as well. Texas got off to a slow start against Ohio State and won't be able to afford to do so against SEC competition week in and week out.
Arch Manning is proving that he can deliver in big spots, leading the comeback against the Buckeyes. And the market is starting to develop some respect for him and his team based on that recent track record of success.
Notre Dame is a little different in terms of their path to the national title. The Fighting Irish benefit greatly from being an independent that does not belong to a conference. The Irish face almost all Power 4 schools this year, but only one or two of those games will be challenging, as their schedule is pretty easy outside of matchups with BYU and Miami.
Because of that, the Irish should be able to feast on weaker competition and make the College Football Playoff as long as they avoid two losses. From there, they have just as good a shot as anyone of reaching the national title game in a single-elimination tournament format.
There is no clear favorite to win the national championship in college football yet this year. But I do think that Ohio State has the best chance to get the job done. Jeremiah Smith could have a Heisman Trophy-level campaign at wide receiver for the Buckeyes this year, while Ohio State is always one of the best defensive teams in the sport. Look for the Buckeyes to get their hands on the trophy for the second time in three years after responding nicely to their loss to the Longhorns.
