Updated August 26, 2026
The College Football Playoff national championship trophy is the biggest prize in collegiate athletics, as elite programs from around the country try to secure the trophy for this season. Throughout this year, you can check back here for the latest prediction market prices in the race for the CFP title, and get our analysis of the market.
The Polymarket prediction market pricing above shows that there are many teams with a solid chance to win the College Football Playoff early in the 2026 campaign. Several teams have been priced at 10% or higher to get the job done, but nobody has fully separated themselves from the pack as a clear favorite.
Of course, that will change as the season wears on and conference play gets going, as teams will begin to eliminate one another from playoff contention. But for now, a case can be made for a large chunk of teams that are looking to prove that they are the best in this sport.
Those making college football predictions know that the Ohio State Buckeyes have been a fixture at or near the top of the rankings for many years. They won a national title two seasons ago and will look to get back to the top of the mountain this year. The question will be whether they can survive the gauntlet that is the Big Ten in good enough shape for that to happen.
The Buckeyes have road games against defending champions Indiana and USC to deal with in conference play, along with home dates against Oregon and Michigan. On top of that, Ryan Day's team has a non-conference matchup with the Texas Longhorns on their schedule. If Ohio State is going to win it all this year, they will certainly be battle-tested by the end of the season.
Oregon is in a similar position to Ohio State, in that there are very few easy weeks in the Big Ten. Oregon has USC, Ohio State, and Michigan to deal with on their schedule, but they managed to avoid Indiana this season. Dan Lanning's teams are always among the best in college football, but they have yet to turn any of those teams into titles.
Dante Moore is back at quarterback for Oregon this year. He finished in the top 10 in the nation with 30 touchdown passes for the Ducks a season ago. But he had 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in 2 matchups with the eventual champion Hoosiers and will need to step his game up against elite competition if the Ducks are going to fly to a title in 2026-27.
Notre Dame is a little different in terms of their path to the national title. The Fighting Irish benefit greatly from being an independent that does not belong to a conference. The Irish face almost all Power 4 schools this year, but only one or two of those games will be challenging, as their schedule is pretty easy outside of matchups with BYU and Miami.
Because of that, the Irish should be able to feast on weaker competition and make the College Football Playoff as long as they avoid two losses. From there, they have just as good a shot as anyone of reaching the national title game in a single-elimination tournament format.
There is no clear favorite to win the national championship in college football yet this year. But I do think that Ohio State has the best chance to get the job done. Jeremiah Smith could have a Heisman Trophy level campaign at wide receiver for the Buckeyes this year, while Ohio State is always one of the best defensive teams in the sport. Look for the Buckeyes to get their hands on the trophy for the second time in three years.
