Rice Owls vs Texas State Bobcats Armed Forces Bowl Prediction – 1/2/2026

The Rice Owls and Texas State Bobcats will meet in the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl on Friday afternoon in a game between two teams moving in different directions. Texas State enters with momentum, having won three straight games to close the regular season, while Rice comes into bowl season with a 5-7 record. Who will end their season on a high note? Continue reading to get my Rice vs Texas State prediction for this matchup.

Our Rice vs Texas State Pick

Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Rice Owls vs Texas State Bobcats
• Date & Time: Friday, January 2, 2026, 1:00 PM ET
• Venue: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
• Broadcast: ESPN

Key Storylines

Texas State enters this bowl game on a positive trajectory after closing its regular season with three consecutive victories, most recently putting up 49 points against South Alabama. The Bobcats’ offense has been the driving force behind their late-season success, ranking near the top of FBS in yards per game and scoring over 40 points in two of their final three games during the regular season.

Rice’s season has been more turbulent, finishing 5-7 overall and losing three of their last four games late in the year. They failed to get the six wins usually required for bowl eligibility, but the Owls were extended an invite thanks to so many bowl-eligible teams opting out of games. The Owls also face notable departures for this contest, with starting quarterback Chase Jenkins entering the transfer portal, leaving Rice’s offense in flux heading into bowl season.

Quarterback Play

Quarterback will be a major area of focus for both squads. Texas State’s dual-threat signal-caller Brad Jackson has thrown for over 3,000 yards and 18 touchdowns through the air. He gives the Bobcats a dynamic playmaker who can create yardage in multiple ways.

Rice, on the other hand, is adjusting to life without its starter. They are likely turning to Patrick Crayton Jr. as a backup option with limited collegiate experience. The Bobcats’ experienced offensive weaponry should separate them from Rice, especially if the Owls struggle to find rhythm through the air.

Betting Trends & H2H

• Texas State is 3-2 all-time against Rice, with Texas State winning their last meeting in 2023.
• Texas State is 4-8 against the spread going into bowl season.
• Rice is 5-7 against the spread so far this year.
• Both teams have gone over the total in 7 of their 12 games.

Rice vs Texas State Model Projection

Final Thoughts

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.