On Saturday, December 21, the SMU Mustangs will visit the Penn State Nittany Lions in the first round of the College Football Playoff. Both of these teams received at-large bids into the playoff and will look to make the most of the faith the selection committee had in them to be in this tournament. Penn State is a 8.5-point home favorite in this contest, while the total stands at 53.5 points.
Here, we break down the SMU vs Penn State matchup that will kick off the College Football Playoff for both teams. Our college football betting expertise has helped us to arrive at our best bet for this contest, as we have analyzed both teams and the betting angles surrounding this game to arrive at our pick, which you can find below.
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SMU Looks to Take Advantage Of At-Large Bid
The SMU Mustangs were made slight favorites by online sportsbooks in the ACC Championship Game against Clemson. But their second-half comeback attempt fell short in Charlotte, as the Mustangs were beaten on a last-second field goal by the team that has run the ACC for a long time now. Here, SMU will look to bounce back after falling short in the ACC title game, after being thrown a lifeline by the College Football Playoff selection committee.
SMU was given one of the precious few at-large bids into the playoff, with the committee valuing their one regular season loss over Alabama’s tougher strength of schedule. The reaction to that decision has been divided, with many thinking that Alabama should have received SMU’s spot in this tournament. We will see if that provides motivation for the Mustangs to deliver their highest level of football on the biggest stage of their season so far.
For the Mustangs to have a chance to pull off an upset in this game, they will need to get off to a better start than they did against Clemson in their last outing. The Tigers jumped out to a big lead against SMU and that put SMU in a bad spot to where they couldn’t complete their attempt at a comeback. In Happy Valley against an even tougher opponent, a slow start from SMU could ruin their chances of seeing round two.
Can Penn State Protect Home Field to Advance?
Penn State went 11-2 this season and made it to the Big Ten Championship Game, where they lost to the Oregon Ducks. Still, Penn State’s two losses this season came against elite teams in Oregon and Ohio State, which led to the Nittany Lions being ranked sixth going into the College Football Playoff. Here, the Nittany Lions will look to protect their home turf to advance to the second round and set up a date against the third-seeded Boise State Broncos.
Penn State went 6-1 at home this season, with their lone home loss coming against an Ohio State team that was ranked fourth in the country at the time. And while Penn State should certainly be confident playing at home here, there is legitimate cause for concern for Penn State against a top-15 opponent. They are 0-2 against top-15 teams, with their only win over a ranked opponent coming against an Illinois team that cooled off considerably later in the season.
Something that could work in the favor of the Nittany Lions in this game is the weather, which is expected to be cold in the Northeast. SMU hails from Texas, where cold weather games aren’t much of a concern for them throughout the season. If the weather gets extreme in any direction, it could be a huge edge for Penn State going into their home playoff debut, something that they didn’t have working in their favor in the Big Ten title game.
SMU vs Penn State Best Bet
We are going to lay the points with Penn State in the SMU vs Penn State matchup in the College Football Playoff. Penn State having home-field advantage in this game should be significant both due to the crowd and the weather. And with Penn State only having trouble with two of the very best teams in college football this season, we are confident in their ability to win with some margin here to set up a quarterfinal matchup with Boise State.
