Penn State vs Boise State Prediction: Fiesta Bowl & CFP Quarterfinal Picks – 12/31/24

The Boise State Broncos will take on the Penn State Nittany Lions in the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff, which will happen as this year’s Fiesta Bowl. Boise State earned a first-round bye in this tournament by being one of the four highest-ranked conference champions. Meanwhile, Penn State has already won a game in this tournament and will look to get the job done as an 11-point favorite heading into this game.

Here, you will get a full breakdown ahead of Penn State vs Boise State from Glendale, AZ. Our sophisticated college football betting algorithms will help you to come to the best possible decision when betting on this playoff matchup. We will also break down this game further to let you know what factors will be most important in determining the outcome.

Penn State Looks For Second Straight Playoff Win

The Penn State Nittany Lions were heavy favorites in the college football betting odds against SMU in the first round of the College Football Playoff. They got the job done in that game, defeating the Mustangs thanks in large part to the cold and the crowd in State College. Now, the Nittany Lions leave their home-field advantage behind as they head to Arizona to take on Boise State.

Penn State’s combination of physicality and creativity offensively will be a huge key for them going into this matchup. The Nittany Lions have only lost to Ohio State and Oregon this year, two of the best teams in college football, with the versatility and unpredictability of tight end Tyler Warren contributing to what has been a great season so far. But it will be whether or not the Nittany Lions can dominate in the trenches against a Mountain West opponent that will go a long way in deciding this one.

Also important will be whether or not Penn State can slow down Ashton Jeanty of Boise State. The Broncos running back finished second in the Heisman voting this year and had huge games against Oregon and virtually everyone else Boise State played. But if Penn State can plug up the gaps Jeanty is so good at taking advantage of, Penn State could run away with this contest.

Boise State Looks to Prove Themselves On CFP Stage

Boise State is the third seed in this year’s College Football Playoff, after a season where they lost just one game, with that loss coming to the undefeated Oregon Ducks. The Broncos are underdogs coming into this game, but they have a rest advantage after their first-round bye. They are also no strangers to being a Cinderella story at this venue, after beating Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl back in 2007, the kind of Cinderella story the College Football Playoff may not want.

This year’s Boise State team is so much more than just the aforementioned Ashton Jeanty. Their offense also moved the ball effectively through the air when asked to, with quarterback Maddux Madsen throwing 22 touchdown passes. And Boise’s defense allowed just 21.9 points per game, even if they did struggle against an Oregon team that every defense struggled with this year, Penn State’s included.

Of course, this game will come down to whether or not Jeanty can get going on the ground for Boise, even if they are more than just the Heisman Trophy runner-up as a whole. It will be interesting to see how Boise State uses him beyond their traditional running game, as some creativity may be required to get him touches in open space against such a physical opponent out of the Big Ten.

Penn State vs Boise State Best Bet

Our best bet for Penn State vs Boise State in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals is for Boise State to cover the spread as a double-digit underdog. Penn State should win this game in the end, but Boise has not lost a game by this much since last year’s bowl season against UCLA. We will take the points, as Jeanty and the Broncos should muster enough offense to stay within striking distance in this one.

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