The Indiana Hoosiers (11‑0) hit the road to face the Purdue Boilermakers (2‑9) on Friday in the game for the Old Oaken Bucket. Indiana enters the game with an unblemished record and a chance to lock up a spot in the Big Ten title game with a win. Purdue has yet to win a conference game this season and they will try to change that in their last opportunity of the season. Before kickoff from West Lafayette, continue reading to get my Indiana vs Purdue prediction.
Our Indiana vs Purdue Pick
Pick: Indiana -27.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Indiana Hoosiers vs Purdue Boilermakers
- Date & Time: Friday, November 28, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Venue: Ross‑Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN
- Broadcast: NBC
Key Storylines
- Indiana enters 11‑0 overall and 8‑0 in conference play. The Hoosiers are one win away from clinching their first-ever perfect regular season and a berth in the conference championship game. The Hoosiers are ranked second in both the College Football Playoff rankings and AP/Coaches polls. A win here would guarantee Indiana a chance to win the conference title and move up to number one.
- Purdue is 2‑9 overall and 0‑8 in Big Ten play, having lost nine straight games. A victory here would be a huge result to end the season against an in-state rival. But it would take nothing short of a miracle for Purdue to accomplish that.
- Indiana handed Purdue a 66–0 drubbing last season. That was the most lopsided game in the history of the series between the Hoosiers and Boilermakers.
- The gap between the teams in terms of offensive output, defense, turnovers, and efficiency is massive. This could become a rout if Indiana plays with focus and avoids looking ahead to the playoff.
Quarterback Play
Indiana’s top star is quarterback Fernando Mendoza. He’s completed 73.0% of his passes for 2,641 yards with 30 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions on the season. Purdue’s Ryan Browne has struggled this year. Purdue averages 20.2 points per game, and the offense as a whole ranks near the bottom in the conference and in the FBS. Browne enters this game 1,915 passing yards with 9 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. Mendoza has a huge advantage in the quarterback department.
Betting Trends
- Indiana is 6‑5 against the spread this season.
- Purdue is 4‑6-1 against the spread going into this season finale for the Boilermakers.
- The over is 6-5 in games involving Indiana this year.
- The under has hit in 8 of Purdue’s 11 games thus far.
Indiana vs Purdue Model Projection
Score Projection: Indiana 41 – Purdue 10
Win Probability: Indiana 95%, Purdue 5%
Final Thoughts
Indiana should be able to win this game and create separation in doing so on Friday night. The Hoosiers have a much more reliable offense and a defense that will be fresher in the second half of this contest. I recommend laying the points with the Hoosiers in this game as they should lock up a spot in the Big Ten title game while making a case to move up to number one in the country.
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