When the 2019 college football season began, the college football-loving world knew who Joe Burrow was. He was a quarterback that used to play for Ohio State—well, he was on the team, at least. He wasn’t good enough to play (compared to their other quarterbacks at the time).
So, he did like a lot of guys these days and transferred. Had he gone anywhere other than an SEC powerhouse, we might have forgotten about him, especially since he was nothing special last season. In fact, he was so lackluster in 2018 his Heisman odds before the start of the season were just +20000.
Not exactly the kind of odds you expect the eventual winner to start with. But, then again, guys coming out of nowhere to win the Heisman is nothing new. The only thing you can really count on at the start of the season is the preseason favorite not winning in the end.
As for Burrow, as the season went on and he continued to play better and better with each passing week, his odds got shorter. When he did the impossible and led the LSU Tigers to a win over the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide, the transformation was done.
He succeeded in going from being a longshot to win the Heisman to the favorite.
The competition is steep, though. Statistically speaking, Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts and Ohio State’s Justin Fields have been as good or better in many ways. While it is impossible to compare a quarterback’s season with a defensive lineman, the fact that Chase Young was suspended for two games and is still a finalist shows how good his season was.
But does anyone have a legit shot at beating Joe Burrow?
While they each had great seasons in their own right, according to the oddsmakers at Bovada.lv, the answer is no. The odds are not just tilted in favor of Burrow; they are dramatically skewed in his favor:
- Joe Burrow -25000
- Jalen Hurts +2500
- Justin Fields +2500
- Chase Young +4000
Should one of the guys not named Joe Burrow win, we are talking about a really nice payout and not so much of one if you put money down on Burrow. So—is it worth it? Should you take a risk on someone in hopes of a massive windfall? Or should you go for the apparent sure thing and bet on Burrow?
As nice as the payday would be, going with Burrow is the only bet here.
Statistics aside, there is one he has more of then all of the other players, and it is something voters love—big-time wins. Burrow has played against and beaten five top-ten teams this season, more than any other player.
Yes, the stats are great, but voters like to see candidates pile up the stats against the good teams as well as the rest—and win in the process. The only top ten wins for Hurts came against Baylor in the Big 12 title game. Fields and Young just played and beat two, Penn State during the regular season and Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game.
Joe Burrow is going to win.