Monday night’s game between San Diego State and Michigan will kick off both teams’ campaigns at the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas this week. The Aztecs are sitting at 2–1 and will look to temper Michigan’s run-and-gun offense at Michelob ULTRA Arena, while the Wolverines aim to extend their unbeaten start. Before this game begins from Las Vegas, continue reading to find my San Diego State vs Michigan prediction.
Our San Diego State vs Michigan Pick
- Pick: Michigan -7.5
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: San Diego State Aztecs vs Michigan Wolverines
- Date & Time: Monday, November 24, 2025, 10:30 PM ET
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
- Broadcast: truTV
Key Storylines
- Michigan’s size & depth: The Wolverines continue to lean on their big men, particularly Yaxel Lendeborg, who dropped 25 points and 12 boards in their latest win over Middle Tennessee. Lendeborg is leading the Wolverines with 15 points per game early in the season. Their roster also features Aday Mara and Morez Johnson, giving Michigan a major edge inside.
- San Diego State’s defensive identity: The Aztecs are built to defend. Sophomore Magoon Gwath anchors the paint. Meanwhile, Miles Byrd offers two-way versatility and has been recognized for his defensive playmaking. The Aztecs allow 70 points per game and are looking to bounce back from a double-overtime loss to Troy in their last outing.
- Aztecs’ tight rotation: SDSU’s core includes guard Miles Byrd (13.7 ppg) and wing Reese Dixon-Waters, but their bench is shorter than Michigan’s. That could become a huge factor if this game is close late or if foul trouble becomes an issue.
- Long game mindset for Michigan: While they’re aiming to win now, Michigan’s coach has expressed a longer-term approach. They using these early tournament games to grow toward March.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Michigan is just 1-3 against the spread going into this matchup.
- San Diego State is 1-2 against the spread after their first three games.
- Michigan is 2-2 in the over/under market entering Monday night.
- Two of San Diego State’s first three games have stayed under their respective totals.
San Diego State vs Michigan Model Projection
- Projected Score: Michigan 80 – SDSU 70
- Win Probability: Michigan 72%, San Diego State 28%
Final Thoughts
My best bet for this contest is for Michigan to win and cover the spread as a favorite in Las Vegas. Michigan has had to survive some close contests against Wake Forest and TCU already this season. But they should win more convincingly here, as their size advantage over San Diego State should ultimately make the difference.
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