The stage is set for the championship game in the Terry’s Chocolate ESPN Events Invitational on Friday as the BYU Cougars and the Dayton Flyers square off. Both teams have just one loss on the season so far and they will try to finish their Feast Week with a win in Florida. Before tip-off from Orlando, you can find my BYU vs Dayton prediction right here.
Our BYU vs Dayton Pick
Pick: Dayton +10.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: BYU Cougars vs Dayton Flyers
- Date & Time: Friday, November 28, 2025, 9:30 PM ET
- Venue: State Farm Field House, Kissimmee, FL
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
- Fresh off strong efforts: BYU comes into this game at 5‑1, fresh off a 72–62 semifinal win over Miami. The Cougars leaned heavily on the trio of AJ Dybantsa, Kennard Davis Jr., and Robert Wright III. They combined for 51 points. Dybantsa’s inside presence and Wright’s clutch free throws late proved critical as BYU outgunned Miami down the stretch. The Cougars have strong offensive numbers, averaging 84.7 PPG while allowing just 67.5 PPG.
- Dayton’s battle-tested, but weary: The Flyers are 6‑1 and enter the final of this tournament after an 84–79 OT win over Georgetown. They held a big lead late, but nearly blew it before clutch three‑pointers and free throws secured the win. Key contributors like guard Javon Bennett and forward Amaël L’Etang were crucial, but the extra minutes from overtime could cause a problem in the title game.
- Depth and shooting: BYU’s supporting cast has shown flashes, but the Cougars rely heavily on Dybantsa at this point in the season. Dayton’s three‑point shooting is among the weakest in the country. If BYU’s interior defense forces Dayton into long jumpers, BYU could control this contest throughout.
- Potential fatigue factor: Dayton played an OT thriller just the night before. BYU is coming in fresher after a straightforward win over Miami. In a neutral‑site game with a quick turnaround, BYU’s relative freshness could be a real edge for them.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- All‑time, BYU has dominated this pairing, with three wins and no losses against Dayton. Their most recent meeting was a 79–75 OT win for BYU back in 2022.
- BYU is 4-2 against the spread so far this season.
- Dayton is 3-4 against the spread entering Friday night.
- BYU has seen 4 of their first 6 games stay under their totals.
- Dayton has gone under the total in 5 of their first 7 games.
BYU vs Dayton Model Projection
Score Projection: BYU 84 – Dayton 76
Win Probability: BYU 67%, Dayton 33%
Final Thoughts
BYU should win this game and finish this early-season tournament with a title under their belt. But I’m going to take the points with Dayton here. The Flyers have proven their toughness in this tournament already and they should keep this game close, even if they fall short in Orlando when the final buzzer sounds.
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