The First Four of the 2023 NCAA Tournament will feature an interesting Tuesday night matchup between the Pitt Panthers and Mississippi State Bulldogs. These were two of the final at-large teams selected for the tournament, and both teams will be looking to prove that they belong in the field of 68. Here, we make our college basketball betting picks for this Pitt vs Mississippi State First Four contest.
Pitt vs Mississippi State Betting Pick
| ℹ️ The Pick: | Mississippi State -2 |
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This game will be played at UD Arena at 9:10 PM ET on Tuesday, March 14, 2023.
Why Bet on Mississippi State:
✅ Mississippi State has a massive advantage on the defensive end of the floor. They are ranked sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency per Kenpom, compared to Pitt’s 142nd ranked defense by those same metrics. Expect the Bulldogs to put the clamps on Pitt here.
✅ Both of these teams were blown out in their last games. But Pitt was blown out by a good, not great, Duke team. Meanwhile, Mississippi State was beaten handily by the number one overall seed in this tournament, the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Bulldogs should be judged less harshly than Pitt for their conference tournament ousters.
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Pitt Panthers: On the Way Down?
The Pitt Panthers lost three of their final four games between the regular season and ACC Tournament, with the last of those losses being a blowout at the hands of Duke. That was not enough to knock Pitt out of the NCAA Tournament, though, as they were given this spot in the First Four as an 11-seed. Now they face Mississippi State, in a game where Pitt has to be better on defense than they have been of late.
In their last four games, Pitt has given up 85.8 points per game. While some of that had to do with giving up a ton of points to a strong Duke team, they were also torched defensively by struggling Notre Dame and Georgia Tech teams. Pitt appears to be leaking oil going into the First Four, and they need to figure things out in a hurry to avoid an early exit.
Mississippi State Bulldogs: On the Way Up?
While the Pitt Panthers are struggling heading into the NCAA Tournament, the Mississippi State Bulldogs are playing at a high level. Despite getting crushed by Alabama in the SEC Tournament, Mississippi State won three of its final five games, and nine of their last 13 games. Now they will look to use their defensive superiority to get to the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
Mississippi State ranks 11th in the nation in points per game allowed, conceding just 61.0 points per contest. They will need every bit of that defensive prowess to stop a Pitt team that can be explosive offensively, but the Bulldogs are not likely to lose their defensive edge here.
Coming Up Next: Iowa State
The winner of this First Four contest will take on the Iowa State Cyclones on Thursday. Iowa State was solid in the Big 12 this year, though they were unspectacular. Depending on who wins this game, we could see one of two interesting stylistic matchups against the Cyclones.
If Pitt wins this game, we would see the Panthers play a second straight opponent that puts their offense to the test with a strong defense. Meanwhile, a Mississippi State/Iowa State matchup would pit two defenses in the Kenpom top-10 against one another.
