Updated April 2, 2026
The national semifinals include a heavyweight clash as Michigan and Arizona meet with a trip to the title game on the line. Both programs have looked dominant through the tournament, combining elite defense with efficient scoring. Michigan arrives after a statement 95-62 win over Tennessee, while Arizona powered past Purdue by a score of 79-64. With both teams one win away from a championship game appearance, you can find my Michigan vs Arizona prediction below.
This game features two one-seeds. Both teams come into the Final Four allowing under 70 points per game for the season. Both teams score in the mid to high 80s on average, but their defensive strength suggests that we could be in for a defensive slugfest in this matchup.
Another key factor is recent form. Michigan has won four straight tournament games by double digits, showing consistency on both ends of the floor. Arizona has also been strong but had to rally in the second half against Purdue, which raises questions about how it handles sustained defensive pressure like they are going to face from Michigan.
Arizona Wildcats
Michigan Wolverines
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17fRYGDguGs
Get our one-minute expert breakdown of this game
Category | Michigan | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 87.7 | 86.5 |
Points allowed per game | 69.6 | 68.8 |
Team Field Goal % | 51% | 50% |
Rebounds per game | 40.1 | 42.6 |
Assists per game | 18.8 | 16.7 |
This matchup is as even as it gets, but Michigan’s defensive consistency stands out. The Wolverines allow slightly more points on paper, yet their ability to control pace and limit quality looks has been evident throughout the tournament. Their recent dominance, including a 33-point win over Tennessee, shows a team playing at a higher level entering this game.
Arizona has the talent to win, especially with Burries leading the offense and a strong rebounding presence. However, Michigan’s edge in ball movement and sheer size suggests a more efficient performance on both ends of the floor. I'll lay the points with Michigan, who I picked to win the title before the tournament, and am sticking with in this Final Four game.
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