There is a heavyweight clash on tap for Friday, as the Tennessee Volunteers take on the Iowa State Cyclones in Chicago during the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. Both squads have controlled their first two games of this tournament and will try to do so again here, with a spot in the Elite Eight on the line. Here, I’ve broken down this matchup and you will find my Tennessee vs Iowa State prediction in the Sweet 16 below.
Tennessee vs Iowa State Pick
- Pick: Iowa State Cyclones -4.5
- Confidence: 4 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Tennessee Volunteers @ Iowa State Cyclones
- Date & Time: Friday, March 27, 2026, 10:10 p.m. ET
- Venue: United Center, Chicago, Illinois
- Broadcast: TBS/TruTV
Key Storylines
- Tennessee has built momentum through the tournament behind hot shooting from senior guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie and contributions from Nate Ament as he works his way back to full strength after missing time due to injury. Their gritty win over Virginia showcased the Volunteers’ ability to grind in tight spots heading into Sweet 16 action.
- Iowa State enters as a high seed with one of the best defensive teams in the land, holding opponents to tough looks. A dominant win over Kentucky in the second round has underscored how this Cyclones group can control tempo and impose its will, even with questions about the availability of forward Joshua Jefferson.
- Jefferson is expected to play for Iowa State in this game, though it remains to be seen how much he will play and how he will look when he is on the floor.
Key Players
Tennessee Volunteers
- Ja’Kobi Gillespie: Led Tennessee through the tournament with 29 and 21‑point performances, demonstrating elite three‑point accuracy and the ability to carry scoring loads.
- Nate Ament: Returning from injury, Ament scored 16 points in his last outing and provides rebounding and physical presence in the frontcourt that Tennessee will need against Iowa State’s size.
Iowa State Cyclones
- Milan Momcilovic: The Cyclones’ leading scorer at over 17 points per game, able to create his own shot and stretch defenses.
- Tamin Lipsey: Facilitates the offense with nearly 5 assists per game and contributes double‑digit scoring while creating transition opportunities.
- Joshua Jefferson: A key two‑way contributor when available, averaging over 16 points and 7 rebounds. His injury status is one of the tournament’s key narratives.
Stat Comparison
| Stat | Tennessee | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 79.4 | 82.5 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 69.1 | 65.3 |
| Field Goal % | 46% | 49% |
| Rebounds Per Game | 42.5 | 35.7 |
| Assists Per Game | 17.1 | 17.4 |
Betting Trends
- Tennessee is 16-18-1 against the spread this season.
- Iowa State enters this game with a 22-13-1 record against the spread.
- The under is 18-17 in Tennessee games this season.
- Iowa State has stayed under the total in 20 of their first 36 games.
Tennessee vs Iowa State Model Projection
- Score Projection: Tennessee 72 – Iowa State 78
- Win Probability: Tennessee 38%, Iowa State 62%
This Sweet Sixteen matchup features two very good defensive teams. The question will be which offense can do enough to win this game for their team. I lean toward Iowa State being that team, and I’ll lay the points with the Cyclones in a game that should come down to the final minutes before Iowa State pulls away.
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