Ole Miss Rebels vs Iowa State Cyclones Prediction – 3/23/2025

The NCAA Tournament's South Region heats up as the No. 6 seed Ole Miss Rebels (23-11) face off against the No. 3 seed Iowa State Cyclones (25-9) on Sunday, March 23, 2025, at 7:45 PM Eastern Time at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Both teams are coming off impressive first-round victories and are eager to secure a spot in the Sweet 16.

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Iowa State Cyclones Game Preview

Ole Miss enters this matchup after a hard-fought 71-64 win over North Carolina. The Rebels built a substantial lead but had to withstand a late surge from the Tar Heels. Guard Sean Pedulla was instrumental, scoring 20 points on 7-of-14 shooting, while Dre Davis contributed 15 points and eight rebounds. The Rebels' balanced offense features five players averaging double figures, with Pedulla leading at 15.0 points per game. Their defense, allowing 71.5 points per game, will be crucial against Iowa State's potent offense.

Iowa State showcased their dominance with an 82-55 rout of Lipscomb in the first round. Despite the absence of second-leading scorer Keshon Gilbert due to injury, the Cyclones didn't miss a beat. Milan Momcilovic stepped up with 20 points, and Curtis Jones added 17. Jones leads the team with 17.1 points per game, supported by Joshua Jefferson (12.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg) and Tamin Lipsey (10.8 ppg). The Cyclones' defense, ranked eighth in adjusted efficiency, will aim to stifle the Rebels' versatile offense.

Betting Insights

As of now, Iowa State is favored by 5.5 points, with a total over/under set at 145.5 points. The Cyclones' efficient offense, averaging 80.4 points per game on 48.3% shooting, contrasts with the Rebels' 77.0 points per game on 44.2% shooting. Iowa State's defense allows 91.8 points per 100 possessions, while Ole Miss allows 95.2, indicating a potential defensive battle.

Key betting trends include:

• Ole Miss is 4-12 against the spread (ATS) in their last 16 games.
• Iowa State is 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
• The total has gone under in six of Iowa State's last eight games.

Ole Miss Rebels vs. Iowa State Cyclones Prediction

This matchup presents a compelling contrast between Ole Miss's balanced scoring and Iowa State's defensive prowess. The Rebels' ability to distribute scoring across multiple players makes them unpredictable, but the Cyclones' disciplined defense and efficient offense provide a significant edge. Iowa State's recent form, including their dominant first-round performance, suggests they have the momentum and depth to handle Ole Miss's challenges.

Considering the Cyclones' superior shooting percentages, defensive efficiency, and recent performance, they are well-positioned to cover the 5.5-point spread. The total of 145.5 points may lean towards the under, given both teams' defensive capabilities and the high stakes of the tournament.

Final Prediction: Iowa State Cyclones 79, Ole Miss Rebels 70.