North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils Prediction – 3/14/2025

The storied rivalry between the North Carolina Tar Heels and the Duke Blue Devils adds another chapter as they face off in the ACC Tournament semifinals on Friday, March 14, 2025, at 7:00 pm at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte. This matchup not only carries the weight of their historic competition but also significant implications for both teams' postseason aspirations.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils Game Preview

The North Carolina Tar Heels (22-12) have found their stride at a crucial juncture, winning eight of their last nine games. Their recent victories over Notre Dame and Wake Forest in the ACC Tournament have bolstered their NCAA Tournament prospects. Guard RJ Davis has been instrumental, leading the team with an average of 17.1 points per game, complemented by 3.6 rebounds and 3.8 assists. The Tar Heels' offense is robust, averaging 81.5 points per game, ranking them 28th nationally. However, their defense has been less formidable, allowing 75.5 points per game, placing them 284th in the nation.

On the other side, the Duke Blue Devils (29-3) have demonstrated consistent excellence throughout the season. They secured the top seed in the ACC Tournament and extended their winning streak to nine games with a 78-70 victory over Georgia Tech. However, the win was marred by the loss of star forward Cooper Flagg, who suffered an ankle injury and is expected to miss the remainder of the tournament. Flagg has been a cornerstone for Duke, averaging 19.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. Despite his absence, the Blue Devils maintain a potent offense, averaging 83.5 points per game (13th nationally), and a stifling defense, allowing just 61.4 points per game (6th nationally).

Betting Insights

As of the latest reports, the betting odds favor Duke by 7.5 points, with an over/under set at 155.5 points. The Tar Heels have been impressive against the spread (ATS), covering in seven of their last eight games. Conversely, Duke has also been strong ATS, covering in their last five games. The total has gone over in seven of North Carolina's last ten games, indicating a trend towards high-scoring affairs.

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Duke Blue Devils Prediction

This semifinal clash presents a compelling narrative. North Carolina's recent surge and offensive prowess position them as formidable opponents. RJ Davis's leadership and scoring ability will be pivotal, especially against a Duke team missing its leading scorer and defensive anchor, Cooper Flagg. Duke's depth and defensive discipline remain strengths, but Flagg's absence could expose vulnerabilities, particularly in rebounding and interior defense.

Considering these factors, the game is likely to be closely contested. While Duke's overall season performance and defensive metrics are impressive, the loss of Flagg cannot be understated. North Carolina's momentum and offensive capabilities suggest they have a strong chance to not only cover the spread but potentially secure an upset victory. Bettors might find value in taking North Carolina with the points, and the over on the total points appears favorable given both teams' scoring tendencies.

In conclusion, anticipate a high-energy game with both teams showcasing their offensive talents. The Tar Heels' recent form and Duke's key injury tilt the scales slightly in favor of North Carolina covering the spread, with a strong possibility of the total points exceeding the set line.