New Mexico Lobos vs Michigan State Spartans Pick – 3/23/2025

The NCAA Tournament's second round brings an exciting matchup between the 10th-seeded New Mexico Lobos and the 2nd-seeded Michigan State Spartans. This game is set for Sunday, March 23, 2025, at 8:40 PM Eastern Time at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, Ohio. Both teams are coming off impressive first-round victories and are eager to advance to the Sweet 16.

New Mexico Lobos vs. Michigan State Spartans Game Preview

The New Mexico Lobos (27-7) secured their spot in the second round by defeating the 7th-seeded Marquette Golden Eagles 75-66. Guard Donovan Dent led the charge with 21 points and six assists, while Nelly Junior Joseph contributed 19 points and seven rebounds. The Lobos' defense was instrumental, holding Marquette to 41% shooting and forcing 12 turnovers.

On the other side, the Michigan State Spartans (28-6) advanced by overpowering the 15th-seeded Bryant Bulldogs with an 87-62 victory. Despite a close first half, the Spartans dominated the second half, showcasing their depth and resilience. Coen Carr provided a significant boost off the bench, scoring 18 points and grabbing nine rebounds.

This matchup features a compelling contrast between New Mexico's high-scoring offense, averaging over 81 points per game, and Michigan State's formidable defense, which ranks among the nation's best in points allowed per possession. The Spartans hold opponents to a 40.3% shooting percentage, indicating a potential defensive battle.

Betting Insights

As of the latest updates, the betting lines are as follows:

• Point Spread: Michigan State favored by 7.5 points
• Moneyline: Michigan State -325, New Mexico +260
• Over/Under: 147.5 points

These odds suggest that Michigan State is the favorite, but New Mexico's recent performance indicates they could cover the spread. Notably, the Spartans have covered the spread in nine of their last ten games, while the Lobos are 3-7 against the spread in their last ten outings.

New Mexico Lobos vs. Michigan State Spartans Prediction

Considering the strengths and recent performances of both teams, this game is poised to be a closely contested battle. New Mexico's offense, led by Donovan Dent, will challenge Michigan State's stout defense. However, the Spartans' ability to adjust and their depth, as demonstrated in their first-round game, provide them with a slight edge.

Given Michigan State's strong defensive metrics and New Mexico's tendency to stay under the total in recent games, the under on the 147.5-point total appears to be a prudent bet. Additionally, while the Lobos have the capability to keep the game competitive, the Spartans' experience and defensive prowess make them likely to cover the 7.5-point spread.

Prediction: Michigan State Spartans to win and cover the spread, with the total points going under 147.5.

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