Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers vs Duke Blue Devils Prediction – 3/21/2025

The NCAA Tournament's first round features a compelling matchup between the top-seeded Duke Blue Devils and the 16th-seeded Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers. Scheduled for Friday, March 21, 2025, at 2:50 p.m. Eastern Time in Raleigh, North Carolina, this game presents a classic David versus Goliath scenario, with Duke entering as a heavy favorite.

Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. Duke Blue Devils Game Preview

The Duke Blue Devils have been a dominant force this season, boasting a 31-3 record and securing the ACC Tournament title with a 73-62 victory over Louisville. Their success is largely attributed to freshman sensation Cooper Flagg, who averages 18.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. Flagg recently suffered a sprained left ankle but has been cleared to play in this matchup, providing a significant boost to Duke's lineup.

Complementing Flagg's efforts, Kon Knueppel contributes 14.4 points per game, while Khaman Maluach adds 11.7 points and 9.3 rebounds. Duke's offense is prolific, averaging 82.7 points per game on 48.8% shooting, and their defense is formidable, allowing just 61.9 points per game on 38.6% shooting.

On the other side, Mount St. Mary's enters the tournament with a 23-12 record, having secured their spot by winning the MAAC Tournament and defeating American University 83-72 in the First Four. The Mountaineers are led by Dola Adebayo, who averages 13.4 points and 6.9 rebounds per game. However, the team faces challenges with key players sidelined due to injuries. Forward Terrell Ard Jr., averaging 10.9 points and 7.2 rebounds, is out for the season, and guard Carmelo Pacheco, a 46.4% three-point shooter averaging 9.5 points per game, is also unavailable.

Mount St. Mary's offense averages 70.4 points per game on 44.2% shooting, while their defense allows 69.8 points per game on 40.6% shooting. Notably, they have struggled against high-caliber opponents, scoring 51 points against both Maryland and Georgetown earlier in the season.

Betting Insights

As of the latest reports, Duke is favored by 32.5 points, with an over/under set at 141.5 points. The Blue Devils' high-powered offense and stifling defense contribute to this substantial spread. Bettors should consider the following factors:

• Duke's Dominance: The Blue Devils have won 11 consecutive games and have a track record of decisive victories, with a point differential of +22.1 per game this season.
• Mount St. Mary's Challenges: The Mountaineers are missing key contributors, which could hinder their offensive capabilities against a top-tier defense like Duke's.
• Game Pace: Duke's ability to control the game's tempo and their depth may lead to a high-scoring affair, potentially pushing the total points over the set line.

Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. Duke Blue Devils Prediction

Considering the current form and roster compositions, Duke is expected to secure a decisive victory. The return of Cooper Flagg adds to their offensive and defensive prowess, while Mount St. Mary's injury woes may limit their scoring potential. While the 32.5-point spread is substantial, Duke's consistent performance against non-conference opponents suggests they could cover it. Additionally, the over/under of 141.5 points is attainable, given Duke's offensive efficiency and the likelihood of a fast-paced game.

Final Prediction: Duke Blue Devils 89, Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers 55.

Bettors might consider wagering on Duke to cover the spread and the total points to go over, aligning with the anticipated game dynamics and team performances.