The upcoming clash between the Duke Blue Devils and Arkansas Razorbacks will be one of the marquee games of Feast Week. This Thanksgiving Day showdown pits two high-powered offenses against each other in Chicago. Both teams are averaging over 90 points per game, but only one of those offenses will be good enough to get a win in this game. Before tip-off from United Center, you will find my Duke vs Arkansas prediction below.
Our Duke vs Arkansas Pick
- Pick: Duke -9.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Arkansas Razorbacks vs Duke Blue Devils
- Date & Time: Thursday, November 27, 2025, 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: United Center, Chicago, IL
- Broadcast: CBS
Key Storylines
- Duke’s smooth start and elite efficiency: Duke is 7-0 against nonconference opponents and boasts top-tier metrics on offense and defense. Their scoring margin is +36.6, and they rank among the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency at KenPom. Their field-goal-percentage defense sits at .330, and they average 20.9 assists per game. Duke averages only about 10 turnovers per game. Those fundamentals give them a high floor in this matchup against Arkansas.
- Arkansas’ offensive upside: Arkansas enters with a record of 5-1 with plenty of offensive firepower. The Razorbacks average 17.7 assists per game, led by freshman guard Darius Acuff Jr. and plenty of other contributors across their roster. Arkansas ranks inside the top 50 in offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom, but they have an uphill climb if they want to win this game against Duke.
- Neutral-site situation: This game is being held at a neutral site, the United Center in Chicago. Duke has had past success at this venue, and their all-around ability should translate well to a neutral venue on Thanksgiving night.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The series between Duke and Arkansas is close historically, with Arkansas leading the all-time series 3–2.
- Duke is 6-1 against the spread during their 7-0 start to the year.
- Arkansas is 3-3 against the spread so far this season.
- Arkansas has seen four of their first six games go under their totals this season.
- Six of Duke’s seven games this season have gone under their respective totals.
Duke vs Arkansas Model Projection
Score Projection: Duke 87 – Arkansas 73
Win Probability: Duke 68%, Arkansas 32%
Final Thoughts
Duke should be able to take care of business in this contest against Arkansas. The Blue Devils look like a legitimate national title contender, while Arkansas is not as good as their early record would lead you to believe. I am going to lay the points with Duke here, as this game projects to be more of a mismatch for me than the rankings for both of these teams would suggest. Duke should win comfortably by double-digits on Thanksgiving.
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