Baylor Bears vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick – 3/21/2025

The NCAA Tournament's first round presents an intriguing contest between the No. 8 seed Mississippi State Bulldogs and the No. 9 seed Baylor Bears. Scheduled for Friday, March 21, 2025, at 12:15 p.m. ET at the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina, this matchup features two teams with contrasting styles and strengths.

Baylor Bears vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Game Preview

Mississippi State enters the tournament with a 21-12 overall record, including an 8-10 mark in SEC play. The Bulldogs' offense is spearheaded by sophomore guard Josh Hubbard, who averages 18.7 points and 3.2 assists per game. Forward KeShawn Murphy contributes significantly with 11.8 points and 7.5 rebounds per game, anchoring the frontcourt. Defensively, Mississippi State excels in forcing turnovers, averaging 9.2 steals per game, and maintains a strong presence on the boards, ranking among the top 50 rebounding teams nationally.

Baylor, on the other hand, holds a 19-14 overall record with a 10-10 finish in the Big 12. The Bears' offense is led by forward Norchad Omier, who averages a double-double with 15.9 points and 10.9 rebounds per game. Freshman guard VJ Edgecombe has emerged as a key contributor, adding 15 points per game. Despite their offensive capabilities, Baylor has struggled defensively, particularly in guarding the perimeter, allowing opponents to shoot 35% from three-point range.

Betting Insights

As of the latest odds, Mississippi State is favored by 1.5 points, with an over/under set at 144.5 points. The Bulldogs' defense and rebounding prowess contrast with Baylor's offensive depth and tournament experience, making this a closely contested matchup.

• Point Spread: Mississippi State -1.5
• Over/Under: 144.5 points

Key betting trends to consider:

• Mississippi State has won 12 of its last 13 games against non-conference opponents.
• Baylor has won nine of its last 10 day games against non-conference opponents.
• Each of Mississippi State's last seven games have produced a total of 150+ points.
• Seven of Baylor's last eight games against non-conference opponents have produced a total of 145+ points.

Baylor Bears vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction

This matchup is poised to be a tightly contested battle between Mississippi State's defensive tenacity and Baylor's offensive firepower. The Bulldogs' ability to force turnovers and control the boards could disrupt Baylor's offensive rhythm. However, Baylor's experience in high-pressure tournament situations and their ability to score from multiple positions provide them with a slight edge.

Considering the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the prediction leans towards Baylor securing a narrow victory. The Bears' offensive versatility and experience may prove decisive in overcoming Mississippi State's defensive schemes.

Prediction: Baylor 76, Mississippi State 74

For bettors, this suggests taking Baylor with the points and considering the over on the total, given both teams' recent trends towards high-scoring games.