In Major League Baseball, league’s top home run hitters start the season with zero home runs, and will look to finish the season with the most home runs in the league. Here, we look at the 2024 MLB home run king odds and make our prediction on who is going to finish this season at the top of the home run charts.
Stats to Look For When Betting on MLB Home Run King
Which stats are most important when betting on this market? Let’s go one-by-one:
Pull% – Pull% is the percentage of batted balls hit to the pull side as defined by Baseball Info Solutions, which tracks these by hand. There were 2,304 home runs hit in 2020. Of those home runs, 1,386 were hit to the pull side per FanGraphs. That is 60.2% of the home runs that were hit.
In 2019, there were 3,954 homers hit to the pull side out of 6,776 total home runs. That accounted for 58.4% of the home runs.
FB% – You have to hit the ball in the air more often than not to hit a home run. Line drive home runs are possible. Ground ball home runs are not.
K% – A strikeout is not a ball in play. Guys that hit home runs will strike out because they are often patient hitters or guys that have big, long swings that generate power, but I try not to focus on guys that are going to fritter away a high percentage of plate appearances.
BB% – Similarly, a walk is not a ball in play. When you add BB% and K% together, those could be a lot of plate appearances without the chance to hit a home run.
HR/FB% – When you hit fly balls, do you generate a lot of home run power? Was there an outlier from the previous season? To that end, did you hit a high percentage of your fly balls out of the ballpark? Guys that hit a lot of ground balls can often carry really high HR/FB%, but not have enough fly balls to support a high home run total.
Barrel% – A Barreled ball has an expected batting average of .500 and an expected SLG of 1.500. The more barrels, the better.
Fly Ball Distance – Give me a guy that is regularly able to hit the ball a long way. Some fly ball guys also hit a lot of pop ups, which are just wasted plate appearances. I’d rather not focus on those.
Hard Hit% – Much like Barrels/PA or Barrel%, you want guys that make a lot of hard, violent contact. Hard Hit% is a measure of the percentage of batted balls hit at least 95 mph.
Park Factor by Handedness – Home games make up 50% of the schedule. Hitters that have good offensive environments are more likely to have success than those that do not. This one is last for a reason because elite power hitters can hit for power anywhere, but I do want to consider the home ballpark in the equation.
Home Run Leader Odds
Player | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Judge
|
+700 | +350 | +425 | +700 | +360 |
Alonso
|
+800 | +1000 | +900 | +1000 | +1200 |
Schwarber
|
+900 | +1300 | +2000 | +900 | +1400 |
Olson
|
+900 | +3000 | +5000 | +1000 | +3900 |
Ohtani
|
+1100 | +350 | +330 | +1500 | +330 |
Alvarez
|
+1100 | +1300 | +1500 | +1200 | +1400 |
Soto
|
+1400 | +1500 | +1400 | +1300 | +1600 |
Acuna Jr.
|
+1400 | +6600 | +7000 | +1800 | +10000 |
Riley
|
+1900 | +8000 | +7500 | +1900 | +8000 |
Tatis Jr.
|
+2000 | +2500 | +4000 | +1900 | +3000 |
Devers
|
+2300 | +10000 | +17500 | +2500 | +10000 |
Guerrero Jr.
|
+2300 | +8000 | +10000 | +3000 | +20000 |
Cruz
|
+3000 | +6600 | +4500 | +3500 | +20000 |
Betts
|
+3500 | +10000 | +8000 | +1000 | +12000 |
Langeliers
|
+3800 | +8000 | +5000 | +8000 | |
Garcia
|
+4000 | +2200 | +2500 | +3000 | +2500 |
Rodriguez
|
+4000 | +20000 | +15000 | +5000 | +20000 |
Hernandez
|
+4000 | +5000 | +5000 | +3000 | +5500 |
Harper
|
+6000 | +4000 | +3500 | +2500 | +4200 |
Seager
|
+6000 | +10000 | +15000 | +5000 | +20000 |
Home Run Leader Pick & Prediction
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
The early favorite to lead MLB in home runs this season is Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Ohtani is a hitter who can hit for both average and power, as we have seen early in this season so far. He is among the league leaders in big flies this season already and should be in the mix to hit the most home runs in the league, especially without having to worry about pitching this season.
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Aaron Judge had one of the most prolific home run-hitting seasons two seasons ago, hitting over 60 home runs. But he struggled to follow up on that, hitting 37 home runs in 2023. He should have more this season, but he needs to stay healthy for that to happen. So far he has done that and has recovered from an early-season slump, but has some work to do in order to catch the league leaders in home runs still.
Pete Alonso, New York Mets
Pete Alonso has become the king of the Home Run Derby, but he has not been the home run king over the last couple of seasons. Alonso needs to finish stronger in the second half of this season than he has over the last few years, both to help his chances of earning this distinction and to give the Mets a chance to make the playoffs once again. But he is still within striking distance of the leaders in the MLB home run king chase.
Other HR King Contenders
There are countless contenders to finish this season with the most home runs in baseball in 2024. Hot starts from players like Kyle Tucker, Mike Trout, and Gunnar Henderson have raised some eyebrows in this race. But there is still a ton of baseball left to be played and a ton left to be decided in the race to become baseball’s top home run hitter in 2024.
Home Run King Prediction: Aaron Judge
Based on what we have seen early in the 2024 season, we will go with Aaron Judge to hit the most home runs in baseball. Judge plays in a hitter-friendly ballpark in New York, which should help him to keep his power number up, even if his average wavers. And with Ohtani always a threat to deal with injuries, Judge represents a better value at longer odds for now.
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