Tsitsipas vs Basilashvili is the first match on the schedule in Friday’s ATP Indian Wells quarterfinals. Stefanos Tsitsipas enters this match as the higher seeded player and a heavy favorite to advance to the semifinals. But Nikoloz Basilashvili can be dangerous on hard courts and could make Tsitsipas’ path in this match a bumpy one. In this edition of tennis betting picks, we look at this match and give out our best bet for it.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Nikoloz Basilashvili
Why Bet On Nikoloz Basilashvili:
✅ Basilashvili has taken a set off of Tsitsipas in both of their two previous matches, both of which have come on hard courts. The Georgian has been a thorn in the side of the number three player in the world, and that is likely to continue when they play again in this matchup.
✅ So far at Indian Wells, Stefanos Tsitsipas has gone to a third set in two of his three matches. He needed three sets to beat lesser opponents in Fabio Fognini and Alex De Minaur. The Greek number one will go to a third straight three-set match here, as Basilashvili will take at least one set.
✅ Through three matches this week at Indian Wells, Basilashvili has won over 70% of his first serve points in each. He should see a slight reduction in that number against Tsitsipas, but Tsitsipas isn’t an elite returner and Basilashvili should be able to rely on his serve to hold up as he grabs at least one set.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has had to work hard to reach the quarterfinals at Indian Wells, playing back-to-back three-set matches in his last two times on court. He needed three sets to beat Fabio Fognini, who played at a high level in that contest, along with Alex De Minaur. In this match, Tsitsipas faces a player in Basilashvili who has the weapons to make Tsitsipas pay if he falls behind.
The issues on the Tsitsipas return of serve aren’t alarming, as he breaks serve around a quarter of the time. But he has allowed Fognini and De Minaur to win more than half of their second serve points in the last two matches he’s played. With Basilashvili doing so well on his first serve this week, those second serve points will be the moments where Tsitsipas needs to pounce.
Nikoloz Basilashvili hasn’t had the toughest path to the quarterfinals at Indian Wells, but he has made the most of his opportunities this week. The Georgian has played just one match against an opponent in the top-30 at this event, beating Christopher Eubanks, Albert Ramos-Vinolas and Karen Khachanov to get here. The match against Ramos-Vinolas is the only one of the three that Basilashvili needed a third set to win.
Against Stefanos Tsitsipas, Basilashvili will hope to up his first serve percentage to take advantage of his quality play on first serves. While Basilashvili has won over 70% of his first serve points in his last three matches, he has failed to get 60% of his first serves in play this week. If he can get the ball in play more regularly, he could make a real charge for this match against a player in Tsitsipas who has not looked his best.