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Fritz vs Nadal Betting Pick
Rafael Nadal is no stranger to making deep runs at majors, while Taylor Fritz is not. But the two will face off in the Wimbledon quarterfinals, entering just three wins away from the title. In our tennis betting picks for Wednesday, we examine Fritz vs Nadal, as the American will look to end Nadal’s hopes of winning a Grand Slam this year.
Why Bet On Taylor Fritz:
✅ Nadal is obviously the better player in this match, but Fritz is on fire with his first serve during this fortnight. He is winning 84% of his first serve points, the second best percentage of any player in the gentlemen’s draw. That will help him stay competitive with Nadal, covering the games line even if Nadal should win the match.
✅ Fritz won the last meeting between these two players, beating him in straight sets at Indian Wells in March. Fritz will not be on home soil for this match like he was at Indian Wells. But he has proven that he can go toe to toe with one of the all-time greats, and will do so again here.
✅ Fritz has dropped just six sets in 10 matches during this grass season, and has yet to drop a set at Wimbledon. Four of those lost sets came in losses to players on home soil, as he fell to Tim Van Rijthoven and Jack Draper in s-Hertogenbosch and London, respectively. He is likely to drop some sets here, but he will also win a set or two in order to keep things tight.
Taylor Fritz has had a dominant campaign on grass, winning eight straight matches on the surface coming into this match. He lost his first two matches on grass this season, but has caught fire since, dropping just two of his last 22 sets. Here, he will look to use an effective first serve to hang with Rafael Nadal, and build some belief as this match goes on.
Only Roberto Bautista-Agut has won a higher percentage of his first serve points than Fritz at this year’s Wimbledon. Fritz will want to up his percentage of first serves in play, though, as he has put 69% of his first serves in during the tournament so far. Against Nadal, he might need a higher number to prevent Nadal from wearing him down in long rallies.
Rafael Nadal dropped a set in each of his first two matches at this year’s Wimbledon. But he has won two straight matches in straight sets since. His most recent triumph came in three sets against Botic Van De Zandschulp, who Nadal broke five times in three sets. Nadal will really have to dig in to score breaks against Fritz given how the American has served.
Nadal, by the way, is outside of the top-20 at this tournament in percentage of first serve points won. If he struggles to pile up the breaks against Fritz, Nadal’s serve is less likely to bail him out than that of Fritz.