Norrie vs Schwartzman is one of the two quarterfinals set to take place on Thursday during the Indian Wells Masters 1000 event on the ATP Tour. Both of these players have navigated some tricky matches this week to reach the quarters, and both will fancy their chances in what is close to an dead even matchup heading in. In this round of tennis betting picks, we look at this matchup of top-30 players and give our best bet for the match.
Cameron Norrie vs Diego Schwartzman
Why bet the Norrie vs Schwartzman Over:
✅ Five of the six matches these players have taken part in at Indian Wells this week have gone three sets, with the lone exception being Schwartzman’s straight set win over Casper Ruud in the round of 16 on Wednesday.
✅ Norrie vs Schwartzman has been played three times previously, all on hard courts between 2018 and 2020. All three of those matches went the maximum number of sets, including a five-set match in the 2020 US Open, which Norrie won in an upset in New York.
✅ Both players are solid but tend to lack the explosivity that yields more straight set victories. On a slow surface like the gritty hard court at Indian Wells, this should be an evenly matched contest from start to finish, with the player who drops the first set likely to pick up the second.
Cam Norrie has won three matches this week at Indian Wells, playing nine sets in those three matches as he has needed a decider in all three. Norrie has beaten Americans Tennys Sandgren and Tommy Paul, along with Roberto Bautista-Agut, this week to reach the quarters. Norrie will need to do more with his second serve points to win this match, but should be able to maintain an advantage in break point creation.
This week, Norrie has won over 40% of his second serve points in just one of three matches, with that match being his win over the overmatched Tennys Sandgren. Fortunately for Norrie, though, he has still managed to generate more break points than his opponent in all three of his matches this Indian Wells campaign. Against the light hitting Schwartzman on a slow court, expect Norrie to extend his streak to four straight matches in that regard.
Diego Schwartzman has played one set less than Cam Norrie so far during this Indian Wells campaign, needing three sets to beat Maxime Cressy and Daniel Evans before taking down Casper Ruud in straights. There is no such thing as an easy Diego Schwartzman match, both for his opponent and himself, as we have seen in Schwartzman’s 6.5 hours on court through his first three matches of this event.
The question for Schwartzman will always be what he can do to protect his own serve on a given day, as he lacks the ability to generate free points with his first serve. So far in this tournament, Schwartzman has won over half of his second serve points in every match he’s played and over 60% of his first serve points as well. If he can continue putting up both of those numbers, he should be able to grind out a win and earn a place in the semifinals.